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momentum
Weekly Momentum (W1)
Weekly momentum shows early signs of a bearish reversal.
We need to wait for the close of this week’s candle to confirm this reversal.
If the weekly momentum reversal to the downside is confirmed, the downtrend is likely to continue for at least a few weeks.
Daily Momentum (D1)
Daily momentum is still declining and is approaching oversold territory.
Based on this situation, it is very likely that a daily bottom will be formed in the next two days (1-2 days).
Prices may then bounce upward or move sideways for at least a few days.
4 Hour Momentum (H4)
H4 momentum remains compressed in oversold territory, with 13 H4 candles counted so far.
This indicates that the price is close to forming a bottom on the H4 frame,
This may be followed by a corrective bounce or consolidation that lasts several H4 candles.
wave structure
Wave structure on perimeter frame (W1)
As the weekly momentum is trying to reverse, we will need to wait for the close of this week’s candle for confirmation.
If the price closes below 4282 (which was the reversal level of the previous bullish momentum),
This will be seen as confirmation of the formation of the weekly summit.
In this case, the W1 structure may be located within a schema
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5) is yellow,
The blue body of 12345 may have been completed.
After confirmation, the market is expected to enter a mid- to long-term correction phase
It lasts for at least a few weeks.
Wave structure on the daily frame (D1)
The current decline on the D1 frame is sharp and rapid,
This strongly supports the possibility of a blue fifth wave top forming.
Given the current price action, the likelihood of a 5-wave bearish structure forming is very high.
As daily momentum approaches oversold territory,
A momentum reversal may occur within 1-2 days.
Since the decline appears to be a 5-wave structure,
The next advance will follow a daily momentum reversal
It may correct via a three-wave structure.
We will continue to follow up for confirmation.
Wave structure on the 4 hour frame (H4)
On the H4 frame, I currently have temporary body number 12345 set in red.
According to the volume profile, the current price area around 4593 corresponds to the liquidity area,
This is also consistent with the signal that H4 momentum is preparing to reverse.
Therefore, I expect this area to become a red fourth wave reversal area.
In this case the level is 4956
Red is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the third wave
Expected goals at the end of the fourth wave.
After the completion of the fourth wave, the price is expected to return to the downtrend zone
4270 – 4593
In order to complete the 5-wave downward structure,
Then enter a new uptrend with at least a 3-wave structure.
trading plan
In the current scenario, new traders may see in the market
Strong upward or downward movements are viewed as trading opportunities.
But from the perspective of an experienced trader,
This is not the right stage to make large trades.
The fluctuations are very large,
The market may easily target or hit a stop loss order
before moving in the desired direction.
On the other hand, trading with the wrong position or without a stop loss
It often results in significant account losses.
👉 The most important thing at this stage is observation and patience.
Wait for the wave structure to become clear and momentum to be confirmed,
Rather than forcing trading in a high volatility environment.
