1. Momentum
D1:
Momentum on the daily D1 frame begins to decline, indicating a possible reversal. If today’s candle close confirms this signal, this will support the continuation of the Y wave.
H4：
H4’s downward momentum has reversed, so today’s basic forecast is still a continuation of the downward trend.
Assumption 1:
Momentum is expected to reverse higher in the first half, suggesting a minor rebound is possible. But for now, the price is likely to trade sideways in the 4046 – 4081 range.
________________________________________
2. Wave structure
D1 – Structure on Larger Time Frames
D1 momentum is poised to reverse downward, reinforcing the continuation scenario of Wave Y.
But as momentum approaches oversold territory, there are two possible scenarios:
1️⃣Strong landing:
If the price declines significantly, there is a good chance of a break above the 3888 level, which could open the way towards lower targets such as 3746.
2️⃣ Weak landing – consolidation:
The price may continue to fall, but not below 3888.
When momentum reverses upward, we may see the beginning of a new trend.
________________________________________
H4 – Structural view
The structure of the H4 frame is currently unclear – price may be moving within wave (3) or still within wave (2).
• If wave (3) is forming, then we should see a strong bearish candle, or at least a test of the 4001 area.
• If price continues to trade sideways without breaking above 4001 until H4 momentum reaches oversold territory, this is usually Wave B in the Wave 2 ABC pattern.
Based on the current depth of wave B, the expected target of wave C is 4175.
________________________________________
H1 – Structure on small time frames
The extension in time of Wave 2 (green) isn’t ideal, but it’s not enough of a reason to cancel the current numbers.
The 4081 resistance area is very strong and is our primary sell area.
Below, there is strong support at 4020:
• If the price falls significantly and the first half candle closes below 4020, a sharp decline may begin.
• Recoil is usually experienced when the area is first touched.
________________________________________
3. Trading plan
Sales area: 4073 – 4075
Stop Loss (SL): 4093
First target (TP1): 4020
Second target (TP2): 3958
Third goal (TP3): 3885

Source link