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1. Momentum
D1 time range
– The momentum of day frame D1 is rising
– Momentum needs about 1-2 additional D1 candles to move into overbought territory
– This suggests that the current uptrend still has room to continue and may last for 1-2 days before a clear reversal signal appears.
H4 time frame
– H4 momentum is currently in overbought territory and is preparing for a bearish reversal
– In the short term, we may see a corrective move or a bearish reversal in the H4 frame
– This downtrend is expected to continue for several H4 candles after the momentum reversal is confirmed
H1 time frame
– Momentum remains on an upward trend in the first half of the year
– But it only takes another 1-2 H1 candles to enter overbought territory
Therefore, the H1 framework could see a short-term bearish reversal
2. Elliott wave structure
D1 time range
– The structure on the D1 frame is still within the Y wave (purple)
– Price may be forming Wave 1 or Wave A of the Y-wave downward trend
– Completion of Wave 2 or Wave B is expected to coincide with the next bearish reversal of D1 momentum
H4 time frame
– The Y-wave structure (purple) appears clearer on the H4 frame
– H4 Momentum is currently preparing for a bearish reversal, indicating an impending move to the downside
– Confirmation condition is the occurrence of at least one bearish H4 candle
– After confirmation, the sales plan will still be the first choice
H1 time frame
The current rebound trend shows an ABC pattern composed of three waves.
As mentioned in the previous analysis plan, the price has crossed the Fibonacci target area
– Price is currently close to the main liquidity area 4471 level
3. Liquidity areas and price scenarios
– Major liquidity areas are marked with red boxes on the chart
– This area is located between 4471 – 4521
main scene
– A bearish reaction is likely when price approaches the outer edge of 4471 for the first time
– This area is good for looking for price top patterns
Continuously upward scenario
– If H4 momentum reverses downwards and enters the oversold zone
Although the corrective decline did not close below 4398 points
– Then you must be prepared for the possibility of a new rise in the liquidity area 4471 – 4521
Strong downside scenario
– If the price closes below the 4398 level
– Or move to less liquid areas 4348 – 4317
The market may enter a strong downward wave, heading towards a deeper Y wave
4. Trading plan
– Sales area: 4470 – 4472
– Stop loss: 4490
– TP1:4405
– TP2: 4348
– TP3:4072
➡️Overall strategy
– Continue to favor short trades around 4471 as planned
– Wait for further confirmation of H4 and H1 momentum to enter trades with higher probability
