XAUUSD by Marcus_SMC — TradingView

XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook: Sell-side liquidity gradually recovers

After a strong bearish phase, gold is starting to show early signs of stabilizing, with prices reacting in the sell-side liquidity zone around 4,300-4,350. Recent moves suggest that the market may have completed its liquidity retracement and is now in the recovery phase.

Next week will be important as prices begin to test whether this recovery can extend into a broader upward corrective move.

market structure

On the longer time frame, gold remains within a bearish structure following several support breaks and clear shifts in demand flow. However, the final stage of the decline showed signs of weakness, followed by a sharp reaction from the lows.

This move typically occurs after liquidity has been taken away from below, and prices recover to rebalance the gap left by the decline.

The current phase looks less like a continuation and more like the early stages of a recovery.

artistic appearance

Prices currently remain above the buy zone around 4,450-4,460, which is a short-term basis. As long as the area remains intact, the path up remains open.

Above current prices, multiple layers of unsaturated gaps remain between 4,600 – 4,800. These gaps represent normal goals during recovery.

Above, the market remains capped by a descending trendline and orders on higher time frames around 5,100-5,200, creating major resistance to any further moves.

critical level
Sell-side liquidity (minimum): 4,300 – 4,350
Support/Buy Zone: 4,450 – 4,460
First gap (FVG): 4,600 – 4,650
Gap above: 4,700 – 4,800
Big Resistance (OB): 5,100 – 5,200
Scenario of the week

Key scenario – recovery continues upward
As long as prices remain above 4,450, gold prices are likely to continue pushing towards the upper gap area. The first target is around 4,600-4,650, and if momentum builds, the next target is 4,700-4,800.

This is consistent with a typical liquidity withdrawal and gap filling scenario.

Secondary Scenario – Pre-Expansion Rally
Price could revisit the 4,450 area or dip briefly to rebalance before continuing higher. As long as sell-side liquidity does not decline significantly, the recovery structure remains valid.

Failure Scenario – Continue Down
A clear break below 4,300 would indicate that the market is not yet finished falling, opening the way for further downside expansion. However, current responses suggest this is not universally the case.

Comment

The main shift this week was a reaction to the lows. Gold is no longer impulsively falling – it is stabilizing and starting to move higher.

This does not yet confirm a full bullish reversal, but it supports the idea of ​​an upward correction phase towards more liquid territory.

In the short term, gold prices appear to be in a favorable position for recovery, with an upward target in the 4,600-4,800 range, before facing stronger resistance above.