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Hi everyone, this is my opinion on the current XAUUSD setup.
market analysis
Gold is currently showing a short-term recovery, but the broader structure still suggests that this is just a corrective move within an existing bearish phase, with no reversal confirmed yet.
On the chart, price is reacting by returning to the 4753-4760 sell zone, which is the major resistance area after the recent pullback. This area is important as it defines the upper limit of the current recovery and could become the point at which selling pressure returns.
It is worth noting here that the market did not break out into a new uptrend. Instead, it moves sideways upward within a relatively narrow range following a pullback, often reflecting a pause or correction before the next move in the direction. In this case, the structure remains tilted to the downside unless buyers can clearly break above the overhead resistance.
Below current prices, the chart highlights key liquidity areas around 4580-4608. This is a key area of support to watch if gold begins to move back from resistance. A move toward this area would be consistent with the view that the current recovery is only temporary and that the market is still preparing for another phase of decline.
If the liquidity zone fails to hold, 4554 still represents a key reference level on the downside. So, for now, the technical structure suggests gold is still trading in a consolidation zone, while broader short-term pressures continue to be on the lower side.
Key price areas to watch
Current Resistance/Sell Area: 4753–4760
Current price range: around 4754
The key liquidity areas are as follows: 4580–4608
Next support level in downtrend: 4554
My scenarios and strategies
My preferred scenario is to view the current rally as a corrective bounce within a bearish structure.
As long as XAUUSD remains trapped below the 4753-4760 resistance area, I still favor the idea that this move could lose momentum and head lower again. If sellers react from this area, the first target on the downside will be the key liquidity area around 4580-4608 points.
If the bearish pressure continues to increase thereafter, gold prices may fall towards 4554, which will become the next important support worthy of attention.
However, if there is a complete breakout of the current selling zone and prices start to consolidate above it, the correction will become stronger than expected and the view based on bearish continuation will need to be re-evaluated.
At the moment, gold still looks to be correcting within a broader short-term decline, so I would rather remain cautious on the upside until the market proves otherwise.
