XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

XAUUSD D1: Gold price holds the 5,000 mark

Gold remains supported above the 5,000 area, although the broader daily structure continues to show signs of a pullback. The key question now is not whether gold prices can rebound on an intraday basis, but whether buyers can powerfully protect this foundation to prevent gold prices from falling further.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide important support for gold, especially given the risk of a longer conflict and the expansion of the U.S. military presence in the region. This secure backdrop helps buyers remain active on the downside, but price action on the daily chart will still require stronger confirmation before any greater upside sustainability can be believed.

D1 technical structure
Overall structure

Gold remains in a broader correction after its previous strong rally. The upper sloping trendline continues to mark recovery attempts, indicating that sellers remain active in higher premium areas.

At the same time, the price did not break out decisively. The 5000 area is still the main structural axis. As long as this level remains stable, the market still has room to establish a recovery phase without transitioning into a full-blown downward extension.

5,100 – 5,150: Near-term FVG resistance

The first area of ​​concern in any recovery is the 5,100 – 5,150 FVG area. This is the closest resistance level and may be the first place where the market tests whether the current buying strength is real or just a temporary bounce.

If the price reaches this area but fails to hold above it, the current move may simply be a corrective bounce.

5,000: Main defensive support

5,000 is the most important support level on the chart right now. Prices are showing signs of refusing to fall further, suggesting buyers are still absorbing selling pressure.

If this range continues, gold prices may attempt another recovery towards the upper imbalance zone.

4,848 – 4,900: Main support area

If the market falls below 5,000 points, the next major support level will be 4,848 – 4,900 points. This is an important area of ​​demand in the daily structure and could attract a stronger buying response if the pullback widens.

4,700: Deep trendline support

Below that level, the 4,700 area would become a deeper support area to watch, especially since it is consistent with the long-term uptrend line. If the price reaches this area, it can become a stronger reaction point for mid-term traders.

What does order flow indicate?

The main positive sign is that gold has not sold off aggressively in the 5000 area. This tells us that buyers are still defending the lower range.

So now:

Sellers still control pressure from higher levels to adjust

Buyers are defending the 5,000 support level

The range remains the main dividing line between an attempted recovery and a broader correction

This structure usually occurs before the market chooses its next big move.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: 5,000 people maintain support and gradually resume

If gold continues to hold the 5,000 area and shows a clear bullish reaction, the price may recover towards the 5,100 – 5,150 FVG area.

If the region recovers with stronger momentum, the recovery could expand further.

Entry Point: Around 5,000 if support holds and bullish confirmation emerges
SL: Below 4,848
TP1: 5,100 – 5,150
TP2: If price clearly breaks out of the FVG zone, resistance is higher

Scenario 2: FVG refuses and renews contract due to refusal

If the price rebounds towards 5,100 – 5,150 but fails to stabilize above it and a clear rejection signal emerges, the market may move towards 5,000.

If it breaks through 5,000 points, the next falling area will be 4,848-4,900 points.

Entry price: Around 5,100 – 5,150, a clear rejection signal appears
SL: Above FVG area
TP1：5,000
TP2: 4,848 – 4,900

Scenario 3: Trendline Support Deep Correction

If the 4,848 – 4,900 area fails to hold, the correction could extend to the 4,700 area, where deeper trendline support would come into play.

Entry: Definitely below 4,848 points
SL: Above missing support area
Target price: approximately 4,700

Critical level of monitoring

5,000 → Support spindle

5,100 – 5,150 → Near-term FVG resistance

4,848 – 4,900 → Main support areas

4,700 → Deep Trendline Support

in conclusion

Gold on the daily time frame maintains a significant base of support, but the broader correction structure remains incomplete. The geopolitical backdrop continues to support gold as a defensive asset, but from a technical perspective, buyers still need to prove they can protect 5,000 and regain the upper imbalance area.

As long as 5,000 points remain stable, the market still has room for a substantial recovery. But if this level declines, the correction could extend deeper into the next support layer below.