XAUUSD by Lana_M2 — TradingView

XAUUSD H4: Gold rebounds sharply, but buyers need to regain access to higher liquidity

Gold is regaining momentum after a strong rebound from lower support areas, with recent market structure suggesting buyers are trying to re-establish control after the recent sell-off. Meanwhile, the market is still trading below more significant resistance levels, meaning this move should be viewed as a recovery step until price proves it can regain the upper structure.

basic framework

In the short term, the broader tone is more positive for gold.

It is worth noting that both gold and U.S. stocks are higher, and spot gold has exceeded the 4,700 area after a strong daily rise. This tells us that the current move is not just driven by panic, but also by improving market sentiment and a resurgence in demand for risk assets.

In the meantime, this environment will keep gold volatile. When stocks and gold rise together, the market typically takes a softer defensive tone but still holds the precious metal as a hedge. That’s why the current rally seems constructive, even if the broader trend still needs confirmation.

H4 technical architecture
Overall structure

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD rebounded strongly from lower support after reacting near the deep discount zone. This bounce is important as it shows buyers are still active at lower levels and can easily absorb the recent selling pressure.

However, the market is still trading below the key liquidity cap zone. Therefore, despite the strong rebound, the broader structure has not yet fully shifted to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

4,620 – 4,680: Current recovery area

The market is currently stable around the 4,620 – 4,680 area.

This area is important because it is the focus of the current recovery. If the price can continue to hold above this area, the rally remains active and buyers may continue to move higher. If gold prices begin to lose this area again, momentum may fade and the market may return to a deeper correction.

5,018: Major barriers to recovery

The main level on both sides remains at 5018.

This is the most important structural hurdle on the chart right now. If buyers can regain this level, the current rally will become more credible and the broader structure will start to shift in favor of the uptrend again.

As long as prices remain below 5,018, this move still looks like a series of recoveries within a larger correction structure.

5,183 – 5,242: Increased liquidity for sale

Above this, the next major resistance is around 5,183 – 5,242 points.

This is an area of ​​upward liquidity suitable for selling and is the next level where sellers may become active again if the rally continues upward. If the buyer can overcome the first hurdle, it remains the primary goal.

4,357: Main support on the downside

On the downside, 4,357 remains a key support level.

If gold loses its current recovery base and reverses again, buyers will need to defend this area to prevent the rally structure from weakening too much.

What does demand flow indicate?

Current order flow suggests that buyers have built an effective rebound from the lows, but they still need to regain higher liquidity before the structure can be considered fully bullish.

So now:

Buyers are rebuilding momentum from lower support base
As long as price remains above the current recovery zone, the rally will remain active
But a stronger uptrend will only be confirmed if gold prices break above 5,018

This keeps the tone constructive but still conditioned on continuity.

Trading scenario
Scenario 1: Continued upward recovery

If gold prices continue to hold above current support levels and buying pressure remains stable, gold prices may continue to extend into the overhead resistance area.

Entry price: approximately 4,620 – 4,680 after confirmation of increase
SL: Below 4,550
TP1: 5,018
TP2: 5,183
TP3: 5,242

Scenario 2: Rejected below 5,018

If the price continues to rebound but fails to regain 5,018 points, the trend may continue to correct and move lower again.

Entry: Bearish Rejection of Nearby Resistance
SL: Above peak suppression
TP1: 4,680
TP2: 4,500
TP3: 4,357

Scenario 3: Stronger Upside Recovery

If buyers decisively reclaim 5,018, the broader recovery structure will improve significantly and open the way for a larger upside extension.

Entry: Confirmed breakout of 5,018 points
SL: Under repair area
TP1: 5,183
TP2: 5,242

critical levels of monitoring

4,620 – 4,680 → current recovery axis
5,018 → Major Structural Obstacles
5,183 – 5,242 → Increased liquidity for sale
4,357 → Downside support

in conclusion

Gold has rebounded strongly after the recent washout, with gold prices returning above the 4,700 area, keeping the short-term tone constructive. Still, the wider body on the H4 isn’t quite finished yet.

Lana’s Take: As long as gold prices remain above support, the rally will remain active, but it will only be truly confirmed if buyers can reclaim 5,018 points. Even so, this line is still a strong recovery trend and still not a full bullish breakout.