XAUUSD by CaptainVincent — TradingView

1) Market Background (M45) – SMC and Price Structure

A sudden rise followed by a strong decline is a liquidity event (liquidity sweep), which creates a clear bearish divergence.

After a drop, the price rebounds with a bounce/retest → Prioritize the “Sell in Supply Zone” strategy, and if a drop occurs the “Buy in Reaction to Demand Zone” strategy.

2) Main level

Sell ​​liquidity (maximum liquidity): 4,367,982

OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4,331,123 – 4,338,610

Liquidity support (demand): 4,312,463 – 4,306,358

Current reference price: ~4.326 (in the middle of the range, not an ideal entry point)

3) Trading plan

Scenario A – Sell on Bearish OB (Preferred)

If the price rises to the 4.331 – 4.339 area and a rejection signal appears:

Needle/Pull Candle

bearish engulfing

Or ChoCH is bearish on M15-M45

In this case, the priority is to sell on the rebound move within a short-term bearish structure.

Reference target:

TP1: 4,312
TP2: 4.306

Cancel:

The M45 candle closed solidly above 4.339 and held → Stop selling idea.

Scenario B – Buy on liquidity support (opposite scenario)

If the price pulls to the 4.312 – 4.306 area and shows clear signs of + recovery (falls and then closes above this area again).

After confirmation, pay attention to the rebound and buy.

Reference target:

TP1: 4,331

TP2: 4.339

Note: If the price hits the bearish OB again and cannot break through, priority is given to closing the position and monitoring.

Case C – Liquidation to 4.368 and then reversal

If the price breaks above the bearish OB and continues the liquidity run to 4.368.

The 4.368 area is where to look for a sell reaction (only sell if a confirmation signal appears).

4) 12/18 News affecting gold

There is US CPI (November) on December 18: a series of news that has the greatest impact on gold, because it directly affects interest rate expectations, yields and the US dollar.

Initial jobless claims and activity indicators (such as the Philadelphia Fed) are typically available on the same day, making it easier for XAUUSD to create a short-term rally.

After CPI days, the market tends to behave by clearing liquidity in both directions before choosing a direction → avoid FOMO and prioritize trading in the right areas.

5) Quick summary

Short-term preference: Prioritize selling when OB 4.331-4.339 rebounds, until the price rebounds strongly to the top.

Defensive scenario: If there is a scan + confirmation, buy on reaction 4.312–4.306.

Avoid getting into the middle of the range; wait for the “right zone – the right signal”.