XAUUSD by BrianLionCapital — TradingView

XAUUSD – This week’s scenario: expansion target towards the 4.580 area
Brian – First priority only if price stays above 3.996

1. Market Overview – Triangle Breakout, Uptrend Confirmed
On the D1 time frame, gold has clearly broken out of a multi-week accumulation triangle area.
The sixth candle closing above the downtrend line – which was the main resistance in the previous period – shows:
Purchasing power regained control of the market.
This is most likely confirmation of a medium-term uptrend.

Above, the 4,246 area is the next “trend confirmation point”:

If the price breaks and holds 4.246, the path to higher areas will open based on the Fibonacci expansion paths on the chart, specifically 4.360-4.380 and 4.560-4.580.

In short: Heading into next week, the current structure supports a bullish scenario and any correction is viewed as a buying opportunity.

2. Technical Structure – From Breakouts to Fibonacci Points
A breakout of a triangle occurs after a series of higher lows than the previous low, starting from the uptrend line at the bottom → favoring accumulation rather than distribution.

There are important areas of demand/support below current prices:

The trend line area near 4.110 is an entry plan that brothers can observe.
If a strong correction occurs, deeper levels are the 4,040 and 3,920 areas.

At the top, the technical “path” is clear:
Point 1: 4.246 – Nearby Resistance + Old Supply Test Area.
Point 2: 4.360–4.380 – ATH area/old highs, matching the Fibonacci 1.0 area on the chart.
Point 3: 4.560–4.580 – 1.618 Fibonacci area, which is also the extension target for the medium-term uptrend scenario.

As long as D1 maintains the pattern of rising highs and lows and does not break through 3.996, the priority will still be gold under the “buy on dips” framework.

3. Price areas and trading ideas for next week
This is not personal advice, but Brian’s own way of charting:
Main Scenario – Buy based on trend from trend line/support level
Monitoring area: near the upward trend line in the 4.110 area.

If there is a correction in this area at the beginning of the week, and there is a good candle reaction on H4/D1 (longer lower tail, bullish engulfing…), then this is the area where I would prefer to look for a buy entry point.

Target path:
Target 1: 4.246 – Resistance area and trend confirmation.
If there is a successful breakout of 4.246 and a retest from above, the next uptrend could extend to 4.360-4.380.

Expansion target: As shown in the chart, based on Fibonacci 1.618, 4.560–4.580.

Second case – using Fibonacci areas when price exceeds 4.246
When gold crosses and holds at 4.246, the area will be 4.360–4.380–4.580:
Partial Profit Taking Area/Stop Loss Moved to Protect Profits.

In the meantime, if the bullish structure continues to be respected, a bearish pullback from this area could be an opportunity for additional buying with an ultimate target of 4.580.

Failure level:
If D1 closes below 3.996, it will destroy the current bullish structure.

In this case, I would stop the mid-term buying strategy, wait and see and wait for the new structure, rather than stick to the old view.

4. Fundamental outlook – why is gold still supported?
At the macro level, gold is disturbed by the following factors:

Tariffs and trade tensions → increased need to hedge and defend against political risk.

Wars and geopolitical conflicts → maintain gold’s role as a classic “safe haven”.

The final stage of the interest rate cycle: After a long period of rising interest rates, markets are increasingly focused on the question of “when” rather than “if” they will fall. This makes non-returning assets such as gold more attractive in the eyes of long-term funds.

Overall, current fundamental conditions limit the scope for significant declines in gold: as long as the technical structure is not broken, every strong decline tends to indicate early buying power.

5. Strategy and risk management
Next week, Brian’s bias is clear:
→ As long as the price is still above 3.996, buy the pullback first.

The trendline area around 4,110 is the first area I would focus on in a buying scenario; if the market is more “generous” and pulls back further to 4,040-4,000 but still maintains a bullish structure, then these price levels will be more attractive for medium-term positions.

The most important thing is:
Entry size must fit within the account.

Plan to move your stop loss/take profit as the price approaches each point 4.246 → 4.360 → 4.580 rather than trying to “fully hug the top”.