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XAUUSD – Bryan | Volume structure still tends to continue downward after interest rate cut
1. Market overview
Gold prices briefly rose after the decision to cut interest rates, but failed to maintain momentum and remained below last week’s highs.
Prices rose only slightly during the Asian session before selling off again
→ This indicates that purchasing power at these levels is not strong enough.
Risk aversion partially returns, US dollar recovers slightly
→ This adds pressure on the XAU/USD currency pair in the short term.
However, market expectations for a dovish tone from the Fed continue
In the medium term, this may limit the dollar’s strength.
Conclusion: In the short term, Bryan still favors a bearish scenario,
It’s better to look for selling opportunities from high-liquidity areas rather than chasing buy trades.
2. Volume Profile Overview – Key Levels to Monitor
On the border of H1, the volumetric outline highlights three key areas:
VAL – Scalping Buy Zone: Approximately 4,207
→ This is the lower boundary of the current value area and we may see a short-term technical rebound.
Liquidity area/sell area: around 4,222
→ Top liquidity pocket, intersected by VAH and volume clusters,
This makes it an attractive area to look for short trades if the price recovers to test it.
Deeper buy zone: around 4,166
→ The bottom demand area is wider; if the price drops sharply after the top clears liquidity,
This area may attract buyers trying to buy off the bottom.
3. Transaction scenario (for reference only)
First Scenario – Sell in Liquidity Zone 4,222 (Main Scenario)
idea:
Wait for the price to bounce back to the 4,222 liquidity area and then look for a clear rejection signal on the H1/M15 framework before entering the sell position.
Sell Entry Zone: 4,220–4,223
Suggested stop loss level: above 4,230
Profit Taking Target (TP):
TP1: Level 4,207 (VAL)
TP2: Area 4,190–4,185
TP3: Area 4,170–4,166 (Deeper Buying Area)
This setup is consistent with the current bearish bias,
It is based on the logic of “sell on the bounce” – i.e. sell the bounce when the price returns to the high volume + high liquidity zone.
Second Scenario – Small Buy Trades in VAL 4,207 and 4,166 Areas
1) Scalp purchase at VAL:
Entrance area: 4,204–4,207
Target: bounce back to 4,217-4,220 and then exit, but don’t hold this position for long.
2) Purchase from deeper zone 4,166 (cleaner level):
Admission area: 4,164–4,168
Stop Loss (SL): Below 4,158
Target: 4,190 → 4,210
This assumes a clear bullish reversal candle occurs and the Fed does not adopt a more hawkish tone than expected.
Both buy ideas here are attempts to capture short-term pullbacks,
Therefore, it is better to reduce the position size of the contract as the main bias is still towards the downside.
Short:
Basic Plan: Look for short trades near 4,222
Secondary plan: Consider long trades at 4,207 and 4,166
But only if there are clear signals from the volume profile and price action.
