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XAUUSD – Brian | Technical Outlook on the 4-hour frame – Sellers trend after rally ends
Gold has completed a strong upward expansion and is now showing clear signs of trend exhaustion on the 4-hour frame. After a sharp rise, the price failed to hold above recent highs and quickly entered a deep correction, indicating a change in market control in the short term.
Structurally, the market has moved from impulse → distribution → correction, leaning towards a selling trend, while prices remain capped at major resistance levels.
Market Structure and Fibonacci Background
The recent advance stalled near the overhead resistance area, followed by a strong rejection.
The price has retraced significantly to the 0.618-0.75 Fibonacci zone, confirming that this decline is not a minor pullback, but a meaningful one.
Current price action suggests lower highs are forming, keeping selling pressure active at the highs.
The bearish structure remains in effect as long as the price fails to move back above the previous breakdown levels.
Key monitoring areas
Main sales areas
5,716 – 5,866
This is the main supply and liquidity area for selling on the 4-hour frame. Any corrective rise into this area is likely to attract sellers, especially if price shows hesitation or rejection.
intermediate reaction zone
Near the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, the short-term rally may stall before continuing lower.
Downside/Demand Target
The lower support area around 4,800-4,850 remains the first major downside area to watch.
A deeper continuation would expose the 4,600-4,500 area and wider orders may try to absorb the selling pressure.
Overall background (brief)
Fundamentally, gold faces continued uncertainty about interest rate expectations. Recent comments from central banks continue to signal caution about near-term interest rate cuts, supporting real yields and limiting gold’s short-term gains. This context is consistent with the current phase of technological adjustment and distribution.
see deal
Trend: Sell/Sell on High
Focus: Sell on Correcting Bounce at Resistance Area
Risk warning: avoid buying the bottom and chasing the rise; let the structure and hierarchy guide the entrance
At this stage, patience is key. Sell-off intensity in predefined areas is more likely than predicted bottoms.
See the chart for Fibonacci levels, structural changes, and specific sales areas.
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