Will South Africa’s moment be overshadowed by Trump’s absence?

When South Africa held the G20 presidency last year, it hoped that, as the first African country to host a gathering of world leaders, it would be able to advocate for the issues most important to developing countries.

For example, it wants the 20 heads of state in the world’s largest economies to consider the argument that borrowing costs should be lower for developing countries because they pay two to four times as much interest on their debt as more developed economies.

Other themes at this weekend’s summit include securing climate change financing, increasing African countries’ participation in multilateral forums and ensuring they get maximum value from critical minerals.

But so far, the buzz around the meeting has been dominated by Donald Trump’s public decision not to attend.

US president says he won’t travel Claims that South Africa’s white minority were victims of mass killings and land grabs have been widely questioned.

Relations between the two countries have become increasingly tense over the past year – the United States expelled South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, cut some aid funding, and imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa (the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa).

Finally, after initially saying he would send Vice President Vance to the G20 summit, Trump suddenly announced two weeks ago that the U.S. representative would not attend.

The government in South Africa’s capital, Pretoria, tried to maintain a defiant but diplomatic tone. It vehemently denies claims of white genocide and insists the summit will go ahead with or without the United States.

With less than 48 hours left before the G20 summit, the United States suddenly changed its attitude and announced that it would send a small team of diplomats stationed in China to attend the handover ceremony, but would not participate in any discussions.

With tensions between the two countries showing no sign of easing, there are fears that South African diplomats could be excluded from the G20 when the United States takes over the presidency next year.

South Africa’s finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, told reporters earlier this week that there was only one way they could not attend next year’s meeting.

“We are a member of the G20, we are not an invited country. So we don’t need anyone’s invitation,” he said.

“If the United States doesn’t want us to participate, their only recourse is to deny our visas.”

So can South Africa achieve its goals without the presence of the world’s richest nation? Professor Richard Callan of the Cambridge Sustainability Leadership Institute thinks so.

“I don’t think serious analysts will take (the U.S.’s absence) too seriously,” he said.

“Ironically, President Trump’s absence may create more room for true consensus because people are not constantly looking over their shoulder at him and trying to predict or guide his actions and positions.”

Professor Callander added that the absence of the United States could allow middle powers to step up and push for the reforms they want by issuing a joint statement.

South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola echoed this sentiment when answering reporters’ questions at the Johannesburg summit on Monday.

“(The United States) is absent, so in its absence, the countries that are present have to make the decision.

“We are trying to convince the countries that are present that we must adopt a leaders’ declaration because the absence of people will not hamstring the body,” he said.

The Leaders’ Declaration is the culmination of work done throughout the year to build consensus on issues affecting the global economy, including trade barriers, technological advances and climate change. It outlines which decisions members have agreed to take action on.

President Trump isn’t the only head of state who won’t be attending. Chinese President Xi Jinping will send Premier Li Qiang, who has attended several meetings on behalf of the president this year.

russian leader Vladimir Putin will also be absent as the International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for him.

Mexico’s Claudia Shinbaum is another leader who will not attend.

Argentine President and Trump ally Javier Mire will skip the summit in solidarity with Washington.

However, unlike the United States, these countries have sent high-level delegations to represent their interests.

Lamola was keen to downplay the significance of these absences, saying there was “nothing unusual” about heads of state sometimes being unable to attend major events and them sending replacements.

Other global powers have also expressed support for South Africa’s G20 presidency, including France, Britain and the European Union, which signed a deal with South Africa on Thursday agreeing to step up extraction of key minerals and, more importantly, domestic processing.

African countries have long believed that processing minerals domestically before exporting them would boost their economies by providing much-needed development, jobs and income.

These are the types of initiatives that Pretoria has been lobbying for throughout the year at various working groups and ministerial meetings.

South Africa is the last country to hold the rotating presidency of the G20 this round. It is also the last country in the Southern Hemisphere to host the gathering. Indonesia, India and Brazil have led the way at the summit over the past three years.

The South African government has therefore stated that it hopes to use its presidency to bridge the development divide between the global North and South. It hopes to promote equitable, sustainable development and shared prosperity.

While building consensus through multilateral institutions such as the G20 is increasingly fraught in a divided world, Professor Callan believes it is needed now more than ever.

“Human life on Earth is facing a series of existential challenges, whether it’s climate change, demographic change, technological revolution, and more.

“All of these are huge pressure points for human society. You can’t deal with them unless there is international collaboration and cooperation,” he said.

President Trump and his supporters believe that multilateral organizations do little to change real people’s lives, preferring direct bilateral agreements between two countries.

But South Africa and other developing countries argue that issues such as lowering borrowing costs for poorer countries require input from international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and cannot be solved through one-on-one deals.

In many ways, South Africa’s G20 presidency is part of a wider debate around multilateralism and its effectiveness.

If South Africa can persuade other G20 members to issue a joint statement on Sunday, it may succeed in demonstrating that consensus can be reached without the involvement of the world’s most powerful countries.