Why Trump chose Delci over Machado

There have been many questions since last weekend’s drama in Caracas – and there are many – and one that cannot be ignored is that the bespectacled woman now leads what U.S. officials call Venezuela’s “interim authorities.”

Why Delsey?

Why has Delcy Rodríguez, the daughter of a former Marxist guerrilla and deputy to ousted dictator Nicolás Maduro, attracted the attention of the Trump administration?

Why did Washington decide to keep an avowed “Chavista” revolutionary in power instead of supporting opposition leader Maria Collina Machado (whose opposition movement is widely believed to have won the 2024 presidential election)?

A former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela says the answer is simple.

“They are looking for stability rather than democracy,” said Charles Shapiro, George W. Bush’s ambassador to Caracas from 2002-04.

“They maintained a dictatorship without a dictator. The followers are still there.”

“I think it’s very dangerous.”

But if the alternative involves large-scale regime change and a pro-Machado opposition movement, it poses other dangers, including potential infighting among opposition figures and alienating those Venezuelans who voted for Maduro (perhaps as much as 30%).

In a dramatic press conference on Saturday morning, President Trump shocked many observers when he berated Nobel Peace Prize winner Machado for being “disrespected” in Venezuela while describing Rodriguez as “gracious.”

“I was very surprised to hear that President Trump had disqualified Maria Collina Machado,” said Kevin Whitaker, former deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas.

“Her movement is massively elected…so disqualifying Machado effectively disqualifies the entire movement.”

The speed and apparent ease with which Maduro was ousted and Rodriguez was installed has led some observers to speculate that the former vice president may have been involved in the scheme.

“I think it’s telling that we just went after Maduro and the vice president survived,” said former CIA official Lindsay Moran.

“Clearly there are high-level sources. My immediate guess is that those high-level sources are in the vice president’s office, if not the vice president himself.”

But Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who lives in Caracas, said conspiracy theories don’t stand up to intense scrutiny given that vast power remains in the hands of Venezuela’s defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez, and the hardline interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, both loyal allies of Maduro.

“Why would she betray Maduro and leave her defenseless internally against the people who actually control the guns,” Gunson said.

Instead, the decision in favor of Rodriguez came after warnings that installing Machado could lead to dangerous levels of instability.

In October, an ICG report warned that “Washington should be wary of regime change.”

“The risk of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be underestimated,” the report urged, adding that security forces could launch a guerrilla war against the new authorities.

“We warned people in government that this was not going to work,” Gunson said. “There will be violent chaos and it will be your fault and you will be held accountable.”

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that a classified U.S. intelligence assessment reached the same conclusion and determined that members of the Maduro regime, including Rodriguez, were better equipped to lead the interim government.

The White House has not publicly commented on the report but made clear it plans to work with Rodriguez for the foreseeable future.

“This belies some of the Trump administration’s stubborn realism,” said Henry Zimmer, associate fellow in the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

But he said the challenges are just beginning.

“Capturing Maduro is the easy part. Venezuela’s broader reconstruction, oil, drugs and democracy goals … will take more time to achieve.

For now, though, Rodriguez appears to be someone the Trump administration thinks it can handle.

“She’s something of an economic reformer,” Gunson said. “She recognizes the need to open up the economy and she is not opposed to the idea of ​​bringing in foreign investment.”

Zimmer agreed that Rodriguez might not find it difficult to do what Washington wants in terms of welcoming U.S. oil companies, offering more counternarcotics cooperation, or even scaling back Venezuela’s ties with Cuba, China and Russia, especially if it means gradually lifting U.S. sanctions.

“I think she can pull it off,” he said.

“But if the United States demands real progress in democratic transition, it becomes more difficult.”

For now, that doesn’t appear to be on Washington’s priority list.

Speaking to the press on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Venezuela’s three-phase plan, first to stabilize the country and then to sell 30-50 million barrels of oil under U.S. supervision.

The plan would lead to what Rubio called a “reconciliation process” that would include amnesty for opposition forces, the release of political prisoners and the rebuilding of civil society.

“Of course, the third phase will be a transitional phase,” he said, without elaborating.

Article 233 of Venezuela’s constitution requires new elections be held within 30 days after the president becomes “permanently unable to hold office,” which appears to apply as Maduro awaits trial in a New York jail.

But President Trump said in an interview with NBC News on Monday that the election is not close yet. “We have to fix this country first,” he said. “You can’t have an election.”

Gunson said Washington’s decision not to pursue regime change in the short term may make sense, but the lack of mid- to long-term prospects was disappointing.

“Trump might get something from this, but Venezuelans don’t,” he said. “Ordinary Venezuelans are screwed as usual.”

As the Trump administration talks about the prospect of international oil companies reinvesting in Venezuela’s corrupt and moribund oil infrastructure, Gunson said the reality may be more complicated.

“If the government is illegitimate and there is no rule of law, no one is going to come here with the tens of billions of dollars needed to start the recovery process,” he said.

In 2013, shortly before his death, Venezuela’s former dictator Hugo Chávez appointed Nicolás Maduro as his successor, a move described as Chávez’s “dedazo,” a Spanish slang meaning “finger pointing,” a personal appointment that bypasses normal democratic procedures.

Ambassador Shapiro sees parallels with the rise of Delcy Rodriguez.

“This is Trump’s work,” he said.