What we know about leaked draft U.S. plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine

The draft US-Russian peace plan has been widely leaked, and we now know it proposes handing over to Russia areas of eastern Ukraine’s industrial Donbass region that remain under Ukrainian control. actually Controlling Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The latest version of the text also calls on Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces to 600,000 men.

But what else is known about the text and who would benefit most from it?

There are 28 points, several of which are ostensibly acceptable to Ukraine. Others appear vague and imprecise.

Ukraine’s sovereignty will be “Confirmed” and there will be a “Comprehensive and Complete Non-Aggression Agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe”with robust or reliable “safety and security” Kyiv also called for elections to be held within 100 days.

if russia invades ukraine “A robust, coordinated military response” The proposal comes alongside the reinstatement of sanctions and the scrapping of the deal.

Although elections are impossible in Ukraine due to martial law, they could theoretically be held if a peace deal is signed.

But in terms of security guarantees, there are no details on who will provide them and how reliable they will be. This is far inconsistent with NATO’s Article 5 commitment to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack against all. If Kiev were to sign, it would want more than a vague promise.

One of the most controversial proposals is for Ukraine to hand over its unoccupied territories and reduce the size of its armed forces.

“Ukrainian troops will withdraw from parts of the Donetsk Oblast that they currently control. This withdrawal zone will be regarded as a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory of the Russian Federation. Russian troops will not enter this demilitarized zone.”

Giving up territory where at least 250,000 Ukrainians live – the Donetsk “fortress belt” cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – is unacceptable to most Ukrainians. Russia has spent more than a year trying to capture the town of Pokrovsk – it is unlikely that Ukraine will hand over such an important strategic hub without a fight.

“The size of Ukraine’s armed forces will be limited to 600,000 people.”

In January last year, the number of active military personnel in Ukraine was estimated at 880,000, up from 250,000 in February 2022 when the full-scale invasion began.

While 600,000 may seem an acceptable number in peacetime, such a restriction would violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. For Russia, this number may also be too large to accept.

“Our red lines are clear and unwavering,” Ukrainian representative Khristina Khajovesin told the UN Security Council. “The Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation will never be recognized, formally or otherwise, as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any restrictions on its right to self-defense or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”

The draft also proposes “Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russia, including by the United States.”.

In other words, Ukraine and other countries do not need to recognize Russia’s legal control. This may enable Kyiv to accept such wording because it would not violate Ukraine’s constitution, which states that its borders are “indivisible and inviolable.”

Elsewhere, in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, the front line will be frozen and Russia will abandon areas it holds elsewhere in Ukraine.

The draft proposes significant commitments for Ukraine’s strategic future:

“Ukraine agreed to include in its constitution a provision not to join NATO, and NATO agreed to include in its charter a provision not to admit Ukraine in the future.”

“Ukraine is eligible to join the EU and will receive short-term priority market access to European markets while the issue is assessed.”

There is little chance that Ukraine will join NATO in the short term, and Russia has softened its stance on Ukraine’s candidacy to join the European Union in recent months. The document appears to offer Kyiv access to the EU market but ignores the views of the 27 European countries.

Membership of the EU and NATO is part of Ukraine’s constitution, another red line raised by Khristina Khajoveshin at the United Nations on Thursday: “We will also not tolerate any infringement of our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join.”

Other draft proposals include an agreement by NATO not to station troops in Ukraine and that Eurofighters would be stationed in Poland. Kyiv must also aim to become “Nuclear-Nuclear Countries”.

That appeared to reject plans for a Western coalition of willing leaders led by Britain and France to help oversee any future deal.

Here are a few things that suggest Russia is emerging from isolation “Russia will reintegrate into the global economy” and invited to rejoin the G8.

For now, that seems far off, as Putin has an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Russia was expelled from the G7 after seizing and annexing Crimea in 2014, and Trump tried to get Putin back in six years later.

If Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan had been unwilling before a full-scale invasion, it was even less likely to happen now.

Draft proposes investing $100 billion in Russia’s frozen assets “U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine”The United States received 50% of the profits, and Europe increased its investment in reconstruction by $100 billion.

It’s reminiscent of the U.S. mining deal with Ukraine earlier this year, which imposed a price for U.S. participation and also left the EU with a huge bill.

The amounts it mentions may also be insufficient: earlier this year, the total cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction was estimated at $524 billion (€506 billion).

Russia’s frozen assets of about 200 billion euros are mainly held by Belgium’s European Bank for Settlements, and the EU is currently working on a plan to use the funds to provide financial and military funding to Kyiv.

The remaining frozen assets will flow to “US-Russia Investment Tool”Under the draft, Russia would see some of its money flow back, but the United States would also reap economic benefits.

Several commentators noted that the plan did not call for weapons restrictions on Ukraine’s military or military industry, although it included a provision that would render security guarantees ineffective if Ukraine fired missiles toward Moscow or St. Petersburg.

But it does not impose restrictions on long-range weapons that Ukraine has been developing, such as the Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.

We know the US is keen to move forward quickly with the draft on an “aggressive timetable”, with reports that Ukraine must agree to it before Thanksgiving later next week.

Likewise, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was involved in drafting the plan, described it as a “list of potential ideas to end this war,” while German Foreign Minister John Wadfel made it clear after speaking with another key U.S. official involved in drafting, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkopf, that he did not consider the 28 points to be a clear-cut plan.

In some ways, the draft document still appears to be a work in progress, with some details no longer apparent from leaks to U.S. websites on Thursday.

The European Union said on Friday morning that it had not officially seen the plan, a stance echoed by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

It is understood that Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev spent up to three days discussing the plan with Vitkov and came up with proposals for a suture deal that suited Moscow. Russia’s response so far has been cautious, but Putin has made it clear May become the “foundation” for a peaceful settlement.

Handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in the demilitarized zone, would be the biggest sign of leaning toward the Russian narrative, but freezing the southern front could be difficult for the Kremlin, which constitutionally annexed Kherson and Zaporozhye.

One of the proposals is to lift sanctions “Negotiated in stages based on specific circumstances” – Moscow may think this is too slow.

However, a plan “Comprehensive amnesty” Because all parties will do well in Moscow but do poorly in Kiev and European capitals.

Commentators note that while Putin did make significant concessions, some of the demands on NATO may be too vague for the Kremlin.

Russia has also consistently demanded that a peace plan need to eliminate what it considers the “root causes” of the war. One of the root causes is the cessation of NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, which the draft appears to be addressing.

Some of the draft’s other 28 points also acknowledge, without explicitly endorsing, claims that Russia discriminates against Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population.

One thing is clear but fair: “Both countries will agree to repeal all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of media and education in Ukraine and Russia.”

Another apparent attempt at fairness comes from a proposal to distribute electricity generated by the Russian-occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest. “Equality between Russia and Ukraine”.