Watch Gold: $4,500 Support

Hello everyone.

Our channel made a profit of 900 points this week, equivalent to $9,000 per contract. We will continue to follow a cautious trading strategy and focus on monitoring the market this week.

Gold is currently trading at around $4,655 an ounce.

Q: What are the new developments in the gold market today? Why are gold prices still falling?

Answer: The price of gold continued to fall sharply today, briefly falling below the US$4,600 mark, hitting a low of around US$4,502, with a daily decline of more than 5%. It was the biggest one-day drop since the current decline began.

The main reason remains the continuing impact of the Fed’s decisions:

The Federal Reserve’s March score chart shows that the average number of interest rate cuts in 2026 has dropped from 1 to 0, completely shattering the market’s previous expectations of no interest rate cuts throughout the year.

Inflation data was better than expected: The U.S. producer price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in February, much higher than the expected 3.0% and the previous 2.9%, marking the largest monthly increase since July 2025.

This means that inflationary pressures are more persistent than market expectations.

The U.S. dollar strengthens and U.S. bond yields rise: The U.S. dollar index remains above 100, U.S. bond yields continue to rise, and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases significantly.

Q: Is the situation in the Middle East still escalating? Why has gold’s safe-haven appeal completely lost?

A: Instead of improving, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate.

The crux of the problem is that the general logic of market transactions has completely shifted to “inflation fear.”

Many believe that gold prices should rise when geopolitical conflicts escalate. But this time, the drop in gold prices reveals exactly what’s driving the current market panic – fear of inflation.

In other words, what the market is worried about is not the conflict itself, but the resulting sharp rise in oil prices (Brent crude oil prices reached $107 per barrel), which will exacerbate inflation and force the Federal Reserve not only to not cut interest rates, but may reconsider raising interest rates. Therefore, in the short term, geopolitical risks have become a factor that suppresses gold prices.

Amid expectations of stagflation, interest rates are trending higher, and safe-haven funds are all flowing into the U.S. dollar. The rise in the U.S. dollar index continues to put downward pressure on commodity prices, including gold. Q: What is the technical status of gold at $4,657?

Answer: The current market situation can be summarized as “the bulls have lost their foothold and the downward trend has not yet ended.”

Daily chart: Gold prices have fallen for 7 consecutive trading days, recording the longest losing streak since October 2023. The moving average system has formed a record bearish pattern, the MACD range has expanded, and the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30, indicating oversold territory, but a bullish divergence signal has not yet appeared.

Main price levels:

Support levels: $4600-4580, $4500, $4400-4350

Resistance levels: $4700-4730, $4800-4830, $4900

Q: Gold is currently trading at $4,657. How to trade recommended?

Answer: The current market is highly volatile and in a very volatile situation. The recommended strategy is to “go with the trend and avoid random buying on dips.” Selling remains at key strategic highs until a clear reversal signal emerges, but this must be done with small positions and tight stop-loss orders.

Strategy 1: Sell on highs (trend following strategy)

Entry point: focus on the $4700-4730 range.

If gold prices rise into this range and show signs of slowing down, a small sell position can be opened.

Target price: The target price range is between $4,600 and $4,580; if gold prices fall further, gold prices may fall to $4,500.

Stop Loss Order: Set above $4780.

Q: What are the expectations? Is there still hope for gold prices to recover?

A: This is the most pressing question.

In the short term, gold prices may continue to be under pressure and may even fall further.

The main constraints are concerns about inflation, which makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to quickly switch to loose monetary policy; the temporary appreciation of the U.S. dollar has caused some safe-haven funds to flow into the U.S. dollar market.

However, in the medium to long term, the fundamental factors supporting the rise of the gold market have not changed:

Global sovereign credit risks increase

Geopolitical polarization continues to escalate

Deepen the process of abandoning the dollar

Strong demand for gold from global central banks

After short-term liquidity pressure subsides, gold is expected to return to the logic of the US dollar, and the current adjustment may provide new buying opportunities in the medium to long term. The main factors affecting gold prices in the short term are…

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