Ukraine’s talks with Russia and U.S. stakes high but expectations low

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold their first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Senior officials from all three countries are involved, but it’s unclear whether they will be in the same room at any time. Although the talks have taken on a new format, the core differences remain the same.

The stakes are high, but expectations are limited.

Donald Trump is trying to push for a peace deal in Ukraine – one he promised but has yet to deliver – saying this week it would be “stupid” if the two sides couldn’t agree.

But despite this some intense shuttle diplomacy Hosted by his own envoys, who are chairing the first trilateral talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators, some major issues remain unresolved.

Ukraine is involved in this process because it wants peace more than anyone, but also because it needs to keep the United States on its side. It learned a hard lesson last year when Donald Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing and military aid.

Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says his talks with Trump in Davos were “very positive” and that he wants more air defense support to deal with Russia’s relentless attacks.

Zelensky, who often looks somber after meetings with U.S. leaders, appeared unusually upbeat this time.

But he remained cautious about the outcome of the talks in the United Arab Emirates.

He described the meeting, which could last two days, as “a step forward” but avoided calling it a positive step.

“We must hope that this will bring us closer to peace,” is how he put it.

For some time, Zelensky has been talking about being 90% done with a peace framework agreement, but the last 10% is always the most difficult – Russia could still reject the entire deal.

“It’s all about the eastern part of our country. It’s all about the land. It’s an unresolved issue,” he explained, noting what he said is the biggest obstacle that still exists.

Russia insists that Ukraine hand over large parts of the eastern Donbas region that it failed to win on the battlefield. Ukraine refused.

Politicians often talk about their red lines, but for this country, the red lines in Donbas are drawn with the blood of soldiers who died defending it.

Zelensky could not get past it.

As I write this, music from another soldier’s funeral wafts in from a church down the street.

On our way back to Ukraine this time, we drove past many military graves in roadside cemeteries, all with flags hanging on them.

Another big issue discussed in the UAE is what military action the United States would take if Russia invaded Ukraine again one day. This is what Ukraine calls a “security guarantee” and says it is crucial.

Zelensky said that the agreement between the United States and Ukraine has been completed, but we have no real details.

Russia’s response also remains an open question.

There’s a huge new question about just how good Donald Trump’s assurances are: the U.S. president’s Obsessed with “getting” Greenland Seriously weakening NATO’s position.

He also undermined the principle of protecting national sovereignty, which was the entire basis of Western support for Ukraine.

So can Kyiv be trusted to save us in the next crisis? Currently, it doesn’t have many options.

As for trusting Vladimir Putin, no one here has any illusions that his goals have changed.

“He really doesn’t want it,” Zelensky said of Putin and peace in Davos.

The Kremlin says it will “achieve its goals on the battlefield” if it doesn’t get what it wants at the negotiating table – although it has failed so far, despite the sacrifice of large numbers of soldiers.

As a result, it is once again targeting civilian infrastructure across the country, but in a more deliberate, persistent and destructive manner than ever before.

In the harsh depths of winter, people are frozen in their homes.

Today the mayor of Kyiv once again called on the city’s residents to leave if they have somewhere to go.

Vitali Klitschko warned: “The enemy is likely to continue attacking the city and the country’s critical infrastructure.”

After multiple attacks, the system becomes very vulnerable.

“I’ll be honest with the residents: the situation is extremely difficult and this may not be the most difficult moment.”