TVC: GOLD Gold Update by MR_gold2 — TradingView

First: technical analysis

• Price is moving within a clear ascending channel on the 4-hour frame.
• The last bounce came from the lower border of the channel + strong demand area.
• Price remains above important moving averages and has yet to break out of an uptrend structure.
• The current correction is considered a healthy correction in an uptrend and not a reversal.

🔹Second: Elliott Wave Analysis

• Most likely scenario:
◦ The upward impulse wave is complete.
◦ We are currently within a correction wave (Wave 4 or B).
◦ The last rally may be the beginning of wave 5 or wave C up.
•
• A break above the 4,430 area could cancel this situation and turn the count into a deeper correction.

🔹Third: Time Analysis

• The current time corresponds to:
◦ The time correction window ends.
◦ The beginning of a short-term payment cycle.
•
• We often see expansionary moves in the upcoming US trading session or on medium-impact news.

🔹Fourth: Numeric/Quantitative Analysis

• Positive momentum is returning (histogram improving).
• Reduced volatility after a sharp move → usually precedes a price explosion.
• Price follows a digital retracement rate close to 38% – 50%.

🔹Fifth: Fundamental Analysis

• Gold remains supported by:
◦ Expectations of monetary policy easing later.
◦ Sudden weakness in the U.S. dollar or geopolitical tensions could support gold prices.
•
• There is currently no strong negative news to break the uptrend.

🔹Sixth: Price Action

• Bottom bounce candle closes with a positive close.
• There is no strong bearish reversal candle.
• Current trend is trending higher-low → positive.

🔹Seventh: Support and Resistance

support:

• 4,430 – 4,420 (key support + demand)
• 4,380
• 4,320

Resistor:

• 4,480 – 4,495
• 4,530
• 4,565 – 4,580

🔹Eighth: Technical Model

• Ascending channel
• Bullish continuation model.

🔹Ninth: Digital Model

• Price reaches equilibrium near the middle of the channel.
• Price returns above fair value.

🔹Tenth: Harmonic Model

• An irregular bullish Gartley/Bat pattern may occur.
• A solid break above 4,495 points confirms its full activation.

🔹Eleven: supply and demand areas

• Strong demand: 4,420 – 4,380
•First show: 4,495 – 4,530
• Strong offers: 4,565 – 4,600

🔹Twelve: Focus point

• Positive confirmation above 4,438.
• Any hourly close below this level would weaken the bullish scenario.

🔹Thirteenth: Pivot Zone

• Main pivot: 4,450
• Above Transaction = Buying Preference
• Trading below = temporary adjustment

🎯Final recommendation

✅ Positive case (most likely):

• Search buying range: 4,455 – 4,445
• Stop Loss: 4,438
• Target:
◦ 4,495
◦ 4,530
◦ 4,565
•

🔄 Negative (alternative) scenario:

• Clear breakout and close below 4,430
• Create a path:
◦ 4,405
◦ 4,370
•