Trump’s raid on Maduro could set precedent for autocracies around the world

With the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump is more determined than ever to believe in the power of his will, backed by the raw military might of the United States. On his orders, the United States jailed Maduro and will now “run” Venezuela.

The US president made the announcement at a high-profile press conference at his club and official residence Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and it has had a huge impact on US foreign policy around the world. Trump said the United States will be responsible for Venezuela “until we can achieve a safe, appropriate and sensible transition.”

He said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who told him “we will do whatever you need… I think she was very gracious, but she really had no choice”.

Trump doesn’t pay much attention to details. “If we must have boots, we are not afraid of boots on the ground,” he said.

But does he believe he can control Venezuela remotely? Will Marco Rubio and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s lavish praise at Mar-a-Lago that he will follow through on his words with military action be enough to reshape Venezuela and force Latin American leaders to heel?

It sounds like he believes such a thing.

The evidence suggests it won’t be easy or smooth.

The International Crisis Group, a respected think tank, warned in October that Maduro’s fall could lead to violence and instability in Venezuela.

That same month, The New York Times reported that defense and foreign affairs officials in Trump’s first administration conducted war games of what might happen if Maduro fell. They concluded that violent chaos can occur as armed factions compete for power.

The deportation and imprisonment of Nicolás Maduro is a remarkable assertion of U.S. military power.

The United States assembled a massive Armada and achieved its objectives without losing any American lives.

Maduro has brushed aside his electoral defeat and ignored the will of the Venezuelan people, and there is no doubt that his departure will be welcomed by many Venezuelan citizens.

But the repercussions of U.S. actions will extend far beyond Venezuela’s borders.

There was an air of triumph at the Mar-a-Lago press conference as they celebrated what was undoubtedly a textbook operation conducted by highly professional U.S. troops.

Military operations are only the first stage.

The U.S. record of achieving regime change through force over the past 30 years is disastrous.

Political follow-up determines the success or failure of this process.

After the U.S. invasion in 2003, Iraq descended into bloody disaster. In Afghanistan, two decades and billions of dollars worth of attempts at nation-building evaporated within days of the 2021 U.S. troop withdrawal.

Neither country is in America’s backyard.

Yet the shadow of Latin America’s past interventions – and other upcoming threats – holds little hope, either.

Trump has tried a new moniker, the “Donroe Doctrine,” for President James Monroe’s 1823 statement warning other countries not to interfere with U.S. spheres of influence in the Western Hemisphere.

“The Monroe Doctrine was a big thing, but we’ve largely replaced it,” Trump said at Mar-a-Lago. “Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”

He said Colombian President Gustavo Petro must “be careful.”

He later told Fox News that “something has to be done with Mexico.”

Cuba is certainly on the U.S. agenda, driven by Rubio, whose parents are Cuban-American.

The United States has a long history of armed intervention in Latin America.

I was in Haiti in 1994 when President Bill Clinton sent 25,000 troops and two aircraft carriers to force regime change. Subsequently, the Haitian regime collapsed without firing a shot. In the following 30 years, instead of ushering in a better future, the Haitian people have been almost always in misery. Haiti is now a failed state dominated by armed gangs.

Donald Trump talks about making Venezuela great again, but not about democracy. He dismissed the idea that Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, should lead the country.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for her to be a leader, she doesn’t have the support … she doesn’t get the respect.”

He made no mention of Edmundo González, whom many Venezuelans consider the legitimate winner of the 2024 election.

Instead, the United States has tentatively supported Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.

While there must have been some kind of internal collusion that gave the U.S. military the inside information needed to topple Maduro, the regime created by his predecessor Hugo Chavez appears to be intact.

Venezuela’s armed forces are unlikely to acquiesce to U.S. plans, although its generals may be humiliated by their inability to resist U.S. attacks.

The military and civilian backers of the regime have become rich through corrupt networks that they do not want to lose.

The militias are armed by the regime, and there are other armed groups in Venezuela.

These include criminal networks, as well as Colombian guerrillas who support the Maduro regime in exchange for asylum.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela has brought into focus some of the sources of Trump’s worldview.

He has made no secret of his coveting of other countries’ mineral wealth.

He has sought to extract profits from Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for military aid.

Trump has made no secret of his desire to control Venezuela’s vast mineral reserves and his belief that U.S. oil companies are being robbed when the oil industry is nationalized.

“We are going to extract a tremendous amount of wealth from the ground that will flow to the Venezuelan people, to people outside of Venezuela who once lived in Venezuela, and also to the United States of America in the form of reimbursements.”

This will deepen concerns in Greenland and Denmark that he will look north and south.

The United States has not given up on its desire to annex Greenland because of its strategic position in the Arctic and the natural resources that become more accessible as global warming causes ice and snow to melt.

Maduro’s actions also deal another serious blow to the idea that the best way to govern the world is by following an agreed-upon set of rules under international law.

The idea was dead before Donald Trump took office, but he has proven repeatedly in the United States and internationally that he believes he can ignore laws he doesn’t like.

European allies, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are desperate not to anger him and are looking for ways to express their support for international law without condemning Maduro’s actions as a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.

The U.S. claim that its military was merely helping to enforce an arrest warrant against a drug lord impersonating Venezuela’s president does not hold water, especially given Trump’s claim that the U.S. will now control the country and its oil industry.

Hours before Maduro and his wife were arrested, he met with Chinese diplomats at his palace in Caracas.

China condemns the US actions. “The hegemonic behavior of the United States seriously violates international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threatens peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean,” the statement said.

The United States should “stop violating other countries’ sovereignty and security.”

Even so, China may see the precedent set by U.S. actions.

It considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has declared handing it back to Beijing a national priority.

In Washington, that’s certainly what worries Sen. Mark Warner, the Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He issued a statement saying that Chinese leaders and others would be watching closely.

“If the United States claims the right to use force to invade and capture foreign leaders it accuses of committing crimes, what prevents China from having the same power over Taiwan’s leadership? What prevents (Russian President) Vladimir Putin from making similar arguments to kidnap the president of Ukraine? Once that line is crossed, the rules limiting global chaos begin to break down, and authoritarian regimes will be the first to exploit it.”

Just because Donald Trump seems to believe that the rules he created and apply to America under his command doesn’t mean others can expect the same privileges.

But that’s not how the world of power works.

His actions in early 2026 herald another 12 months of global turmoil.