Trump’s move to oust Maduro fraught with risks

The United States may want many of its enemies to step down. It usually doesn’t send in troops and actually remove them.

Venezuela’s sudden awakening took two forms.

Its residents were suddenly awakened by deafening roars: Caracas, its capital, was under attack from the United States targeting military infrastructure.

Now, the Chinese government has woken up from the illusion that U.S. military intervention or regime change were only distant threats.

US President Donald Trump announced that his leader Nicolás Maduro had been captured and shipped out of the country. He now faces trial in the United States on weapons and drug charges.

The United States has not conducted such a direct military intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama that overthrew then-military ruler Manuel Noriega.

Then, as now, Washington saw this as part of a broader crackdown on drug trafficking and crime.

The United States has also long accused Maduro of leading a criminal trafficking organization, which he vehemently denies. The United States has designated the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, a name it uses to describe a group of Venezuelan elites it accuses of orchestrating illegal activities such as drug trafficking and illegal mining.

Maduro’s government has been accused of human rights abuses for years.

In 2020, United Nations investigators said the government had committed “serious violations” amounting to crimes against humanity, such as extrajudicial killings, torture, violence and disappearances, implicating Maduro and other senior officials.

Rights groups have documented hundreds of political prisoners in the country, including some detained following anti-government protests.

This latest direct attack on a sovereign capital marks a dramatic escalation of U.S. involvement in the region.

Forcibly ousting Maduro would be hailed as a major victory by some of the more hawkish figures in the US government, many of whom believe that only direct intervention can force Maduro from power.

Washington has not recognized him as the country’s president since the 2024 election. The opposition released the electronic vote count after the vote, saying it proved it, not Maduro, had won the election.

International election observers deemed the result neither free nor fair. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is barred from running.

But for the Venezuelan government, the intervention confirms its long-held assertion that Washington’s ultimate goal is regime change.

Venezuela has also accused the United States of wanting to “steal” its world’s largest oil reserves and other resources – a charge it believes was confirmed after the United States seized at least two oil tankers off its coast.

The raids and captures come after months of escalating U.S. military operations in the region.

The United States has sent its largest military deployment to the region in decades, including warplanes, thousands of troops, helicopters and the world’s largest warship. It has launched dozens of attacks on vessels suspected of small-scale drug trafficking in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 110 people.

Any doubts that these actions were at least partly aimed at regime change have now been shattered by today’s actions.

What remains unclear is what will happen next in Venezuela.

The United States clearly wants Venezuela’s allied opposition to take power – possibly led by opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, or opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez in the 2024 elections.

However, even some of Maduro’s fierce critics warn that this will not be simple given the government’s grip on power in the country.

It controls the judiciary, the Supreme Court and the military, and is allied with powerful armed paramilitary groups known as the Collective.

Some worry that U.S. intervention could trigger violent divisions and a long-term power struggle. Even some who dislike Maduro and want to see him removed are wary of U.S. interventionism — remembering decades of U.S.-backed coups and regime changes in Latin America during the 20th century.

The opposition itself is divided – not everyone supports a transition to Machado or backs Trump.

It’s unclear what the U.S.’s next steps will be.

Will it try to push for new elections? Will it try to depose more senior government or military officials and force them to face justice in the United States?

As for Trump, his administration has become increasingly assertive in the region, with a financial bailout of Argentina, tariffs on Brazil, an attempt to influence the coup trial of Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former right-wing president, and now a military intervention in Venezuela.

He benefits from now having more allies in the region – a continent that has swung right in recent elections such as Ecuador, Argentina and Chile. Although Maduro has few allies in the region, there are still major powers such as Brazil and Colombia that do not support U.S. military intervention.

Some of Trump’s Make America Great Again base in the United States are also unhappy with his growing interventionism after promising to put “America First.”

For Maduro’s closest allies, Saturday’s events raised pressing questions and concerns about their own futures.

Many people may not want to give up the fight or allow transition unless they feel they can receive some protection or guarantee from persecution.