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Market background (H1-H4)
Gold remains within a broader bullish structure, but short-term price action has entered the decision-making phase after rejecting all-time highs. The sharp decline created an offsetting leg, followed by a corrective rally – typical post-event behavior.
Gold remains within a broader bullish structure, but short-term price action has entered the decision-making phase after rejecting all-time highs. The sharp decline created an offsetting leg, followed by a corrective rally – typical post-event behavior.
Structurally:
The trend on higher time frames remains upward (ascending channel intact)
A bearish reversal has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frames
The current move looks like a rebalancing rather than a directional failure
basic background
Trump’s speech tonight a major catalyst for volatility
Any geopolitical rhetoric that affects the U.S. dollar could lead to:
Pre-trend liquidity scan
Or if risk aversion returns, continue directly
Market may be in hedging mode → anticipating wrong moves before clarity
technical analysis
Historical highs: recent distribution, not yet restored
Potential reaction area for sellers if price rises
Central Zone (~5090–5120): Short-term decision-making/balance zone
Strong Demand (~4980-5000): Buy zone on higher time frames, consistent with trendline and previous BOS bottom
Trading scenarios (if-then)
If price holds above 5090-5120 → Look for an extension into the FVG area and then a test of the all-time highs
If price falls below 5090 but recovers → classic liquidity withdrawal → continue buying
If price breaks and holds below 5000 (H1 close) → further pullback, bullish slope stalls (not yet reversed)
Main points
This is not a place to rush.
Trade reactions, not headlines.
Let Trump speak → let the fluidity happen → then follow the structure.
Trend: Will continue to rise unless strong demand fails.
