‘Tough’ issues that could derail Russia-Ukraine peace deal

Russia, the United States and Ukraine agree that a deal to end nearly four years of all-out war is closing in, but that, in the words of President Donald Trump, “one or two very difficult, very difficult issues” remain.

Two of the toughest issues in Washington’s 20-point plan involve territory and the fate of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, currently occupied by Russia.

The Kremlin agrees with Trump that talks are “in the final stages” and Zelensky’s next step is to meet European leaders in France on January 6, but any sticking point could jeopardize a deal.

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s compromise, Vladimir Putin has not given up on his highest demands for the entire Donbas industrial zone in Ukraine.

Russian forces occupy most of the eastern Lugansk region but just over 75% of Donetsk, and Putin wants it all, including the remaining “fortress belt” cities of Slovishk and Kramatorsk.

“We can’t just withdraw, it’s not in compliance with our laws,” Zelensky said. “It’s not just the law. People live there, 300,000 people… We can’t lose these people.”

He proposed that if Russia pulled back the same distance, Ukrainian troops would withdraw from the area and establish a demilitarized zone or free economic zone overseen by Ukraine. The current line of contact will be maintained by international forces.

It’s hard to imagine Putin agreeing with any of this, and Russian generals told him they were rapidly occupying Ukrainian territory.

Putin claimed: “If the Kiev authorities do not want to resolve this matter peacefully, we will solve all the problems before us through military means.”

Both sides are widely believed to be exhausted, and analysts at the Institute of War estimate that if Russian forces can maintain their current pace of advance, it will take until August 2027 to conquer the rest of Donetsk – but this is not a given.

Zelensky’s compromise also requires Russian troops to leave other areas of Ukrainian territory where they maintain a limited presence, including the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the north, Dnipropetrovsk in the east and Mykolaev in the south.

If there is no progress on the Donetsk issue, the chances of a peace agreement look unrealistic, but a Russian compromise may not be impossible.

Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov recently said that “it is entirely possible that there will not be any troops in Donbas, either Russian or Ukrainian,” although he insisted that the territory would be part of the Russian Federation.

Since March 2022, Russia has occupied Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Enehodar on the Dnieper River. But Zaporizhia’s six nuclear reactors have stopped generating electricity – they have been in cold shutdown mode for more than three years – and external power supplied by Ukraine is keeping the plant running and preventing a meltdown.

To get it started again, significant investment is needed, part of which will be spent on rebuilding the destroyed Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which was used to provide cooling water to the plant.

Ukraine believes the area should also be demilitarized and transformed into a free economic zone.

Zelensky said the U.S. proposal was for the United States to jointly manage the plant with Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv says that’s unrealistic and that instead, the United States and Ukraine could co-manage it 50-50, with the United States deciding half of the electricity goes to Russia – which means Russia.

The problem with Ukraine is that Russia will not let it go, and Alexey Likachev, head of Rosatom’s nuclear agency, stressed that only one entity – Russia – can manage it and ensure its security.

He said it would be possible for Ukraine to use the electricity generated by the plant in the context of international cooperation.

Reaching a compromise on this issue may not be insurmountable, but it would require a level of trust between the two neighbors that simply does not exist.

When trust is so low, it’s hard to imagine making significant progress on the biggest sticking points.

When Trump said this week that Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed… including supplying energy at very low prices,” Zelensky clearly didn’t believe it – and he didn’t think Putin was serious about peace.

“I don’t trust the Russians… I don’t trust Putin and he doesn’t want Ukraine to succeed,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Russia also lacks confidence in Kiev, accusing Ukrainian forces of using drones to attack Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region, but providing no evidence of the attack.

Ukraine denies the incident took place and sees it as a pretext for further Russian attacks on government buildings in Kiev.

Kyiv has asked U.S. and European leaders for security guarantees to ensure a NATO-style response in the event of further Russian attacks. Ukraine also seeks to maintain an 800,000-strong army.

Although the United States and Europe may sign a security agreement, Russia will not accept the presence of European troops in Ukraine.

The economic damage to Ukraine is estimated at $800bn (£600bn), so another key question is how much Russia will contribute. The US is in discussions with Europe to set up a joint investment fund, which Russia has assets worth €210bn (£183bn) in Europe that could also be used, although Moscow has so far refused to allow this.

Russia also rejected Ukraine’s application to join NATO. This may not be too much of a sticking point, as there is currently no chance of that happening, but it is part of Ukraine’s constitution, so consensus will be difficult.

EU membership is also a potential sticking point, perhaps more important for Russia than the countries lined up to join the bloc before Ukraine. Few believe this will happen anytime soon.

Ukrainian leaders cited polls showing that 87% of Ukrainians want peace, while 85% refuse to withdraw troops from Donbass.

Therefore, he believes that no decision can be taken on the fate of Donetsk or the wider 20-point plan without a referendum and a 60-day ceasefire preparation: “The referendum is the way to accept it or not.”

It’s also a potential sticking point, as the Kremlin believes a temporary ceasefire would only prolong the conflict and lead to new hostilities – while Trump says he understands Putin’s position.

But Zelensky believes that without such a vote, the agreement will be ineffective, which will only add to the list of thorny issues that need to be resolved.