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Plan your trading strategy for next Monday
The market is currently in a stabilizing stage at a high level after a strong breakthrough. The basic logic behind this rise (expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve) has not been refuted, and the overall bullish technical pattern remains.
Therefore, the trading strategy should be based on “going uptrend”, but it is recommended to be wary of the callback risk of profit-taking at high levels.
information:
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have strengthened: the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December has reached 82.8%, and most Federal Reserve officials believe that further interest rate cuts are still necessary.
Recent U.S. economic data have shown signs of weakness, boosting market expectations for interest rate cuts.
Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the diplomatic spat between China and Japan.
These news factors have enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Key points: Trading anomaly: Trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was disrupted due to data center cooling issues, affecting futures trading in gold, silver and other commodities.
This reduces market liquidity and exacerbates erratic price fluctuations.
1. Current price trend: The price of gold has exceeded the US$4,180 mark, fluctuating around US$4,215, with strong upward momentum.
2. Wave structure analysis: Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded from the support level of $4,000 and may be in the third wave of a short-term impulse wave, which is part of a mid-term upward trend.
Key support and resistance levels:
Strong Support: $4,000 is an important psychological level coinciding with the 20-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Near-term target: Technical analysis points to $4,235 as the next significant resistance level, which has previously halted gold’s gains.
Monday trading strategy:
Strategy 1: Buy with a small position.
Entry signal: Price fluctuates above $4,210 and continues to rise from the intraday lows.
Entry point: We recommend opening a small position in the range of $4210-4215.
Stop Loss Order: Set just below $4180 (e.g. $4175). This is a key support level following the recent breakout; any pullback would indicate a failed breakout.
Target price: The first target price is US$4,235 (the highest technical resistance level in the early stage), and the second target price is US$4,250-4,260.
Second strategy: Buy when price falls to support
Entry signal: If the gold price pulls back after opening and finds support in the $4190-4200 range, and shows signs of stabilization (for example: a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, RSI recovers from the oversold zone).
Entry point: 4195-4205 US dollars range.
Stop loss: less than $4180.
Target price: $4215-4225.
