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Technical analysis of the US Nasdaq Index (NAS 100) – latest trends and expectations for the coming period
The most important economic data on today’s agenda:
Job openings (JOLTS): Estimated: 6.89 million | Previous post: 6.95 million.
Technical vision and expected scenarios:
Since breaking through and holding 23,986 points, the supply side has significantly dominated the index, causing the index to continue falling to 22,997 points. The breakout followed a horizontal range that lasted from late last year until around mid-March this year, ranging from 23986 to 26289; until price clearly announced that selling had taken control of the lower limit of the range.
Technical indicators support this negative outlook; most of the time, after a “negative intersection” between the moving averages (20-day and 50-day), the price stabilizes below the moving averages. It also clearly shows that the relative strength index (RSI) curve remains below the 50 level, which reinforces the continuation of the downward momentum.
Based on this data, here’s what’s possible:
1. Negative Scenario:
A decline and stabilization below 22997 could indicate continued selling control and we may target lower levels near 21440. Before that, we are likely to witness a rise and retest of the 23,600-23,900 levels as a corrective movement before the decline resumes.
2. Scenario:
If it stabilizes above 22997 and moves sideways, it would be an extension of the sideways trend, as an expression of uncertainty and a temporary state of equilibrium between the forces of supply and demand.
3. Positive Scenario:
A resumption of gains and stabilization above 23986, followed by a breakout and stabilization above 25374, could indicate a trend shift in favor of demand forces; this opens the door to further gains with a target of 26289.
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