The probability of interest rates not falling is 70%. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD by F_GoldGuide — TradingView

The probability of interest rates not falling is 70%.

Gold prices have now fallen to around US$4,880 per ounce. Below is a detailed analysis and specific trading strategies so far (March 18, 2026).

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision: a major turning point (the most important variable)

Event: The Fed will release its March interest rate decision and dot plot (September), followed by a press conference with Powell.

Market consensus: The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% is greater than 99%.

Rate cut expectations are falling rapidly: there may only be one rate cut this year, perhaps in September.

Bottom line: Powell is more likely to focus on inflation risks rather than rush to cut interest rates by more than 70%.

Gold prices may continue to fall, testing the $4880-4850/oz level, and may touch $4800.

Anomalies: The situation in the Middle East: The war continues, but demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has temporarily declined.

Why does the price of gold fall instead of rising?

Interest rate expectations suppress gold prices:

Rising oil prices have raised inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer. This increases gold’s opportunity cost and reduces its appeal as a short-term safe haven asset.

Dollar strength:

The U.S. dollar index remained above 100, hitting a 10-month high, which directly caused the price of gold in U.S. dollars to fall.

money transfer:

Some investors sold gold to meet margin requirements or moved funds into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.

Current technical analysis (based on $4,900)

Strong resistance level: $5000-5020

First resistance level: $4950-4960

First time support: $4880

Key Support Area: $4850-4860

Strong support: $4,800

Very strong support: $4700-4750

If the market is too optimistic, possible target levels

in conclusion:

Short-term trend: Bearish; the $4880-4900 range represents the current bullish and bearish dividing line.

Trading strategy:

Short-term buying position: (quick buy, quick sell)

Entry point: It is recommended to open a small buying position when the price is close to $4880-4850.

Stop Loss: Stop immediately if price falls below $4850.

Target price: $4950-4960 (first resistance level), the price may rise to $5,000 after a breakthrough. Short-term short selling strategy:

Entry point: The price rebounds to $4950-4960 and faces resistance, or it may not be able to hold above $5,000.

Stop loss level: below $4980.

Target price: $4900 → $4880

Takeaway: Wait for the Fed’s decision and then trade based on the direction of the market.

Tonight is a big event: the Fed’s decision combined with Powell’s press conference could lead to a $50-100 move in gold prices.

Position control is crucial; the value of each position must be between 10% and 20% of the total position.

Don’t bet too much on the direction of gold prices until a decision is announced: price movements work both ways, and success is not guaranteed.

Beware of “buying the rumor and selling the rumor”: If the price of gold falls sharply before the decision is announced, it may rebound after the decision is announced, indicating that the negative news has been fully digested.