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True Ventures co-founder Jon Callaghan doesn’t think we’ll be using smartphones the way we do now in five years — and maybe not in a decade.
For a capitalist whose company has had many successes over the past two decades – from brands such as Fitbit, Ring, and Peloton, to corporate software developers HashiCorp and Duo Security – this is more than just a statement from a chair; it’s an idea that True Ventures is betting fast on.
Of course, it was not enough to follow the crowd. The Bay Area company has operated under the radar despite running $6 billion in 12 seed funds and four “option” funds that it has used to pour more capital into growing companies. While some VCs have become more marketing-oriented — building their marketing on social media and podcasts to attract startups and travel — Reality has gone the other way, quietly growing a strong network of repeat founders. The strategy seems to be working: according to Callaghan, the company has 63 exits and profits and seven IPOs among some 300 companies that have gathered in its 20-year history.
Three of True’s four most recent exits in the fourth quarter of 2025 involved founders who returned to work with the company after previous successes, Callaghan says. However, it is Callaghan’s speculation about the future of human-computer interaction that really stands out in the sea of AI hype and mega-rounds.
“We won’t be using iPhones in 10 years,” says Callaghan bluntly. “I don’t think we’ll be using it in five years – or should we say something that’s a little safer – we’ll be using it in different ways.”
The argument is simple: our phones are useless for creating an interface between people and intelligence. “The way we take them out right now to send a text message to confirm this or send you a message or write an email – (it’s) useless, (and) not a good form,” he explains. “(They) tend to make mistakes, they tend to disrupt our normal lives.”
So sure, True has been looking at alternatives for years – software-based, hardware-based, everything in between. It’s the same mindset that led True to bet early on Fitbit before wearables appeared, invest in Peloton after hundreds of other VCs said ‘no thanks,’ and back the ring when founder Jamie Siminoff nearly ran out of money and judges on “Shark Tank.” he turned him away. Every time, the bet looks dubious, says Callaghan. Each time, the bet was on a new way for people to interact with technology that seemed more natural than what had come before.
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The latest example of this is the Sandbar, a hardware tool that Callaghan describes as a “thinking companion” – or, in simpler terms, a. a ring connected to the voice worn on the index finger. Its sole purpose: to capture and organize your thoughts through words. It’s not trying to be another Humane AI Pin or compete with tracking Oura’s health. “It does one thing well,” Callaghan says. “But there’s one thing that’s really important about human behavior that’s missing from technology today.”
The idea is not just recording the surrounding audio but being there when the idea strikes, being like a friend to the idea. It’s integrated with software, it supports AI, and, according to Callaghan, it represents a very different view of how we should live with intelligence.
What attracted True to Sandbar founders Mina Fahmi and Kirak Hong wasn’t the design, however. “When we met Mina, we were totally in sync,” Callaghan recalls. The True group had already thought for years about other ways to communicate, to make the money they wanted to make it possible. They met a lot of founders, that’s why. But the closeness of Fahmi and Hong – who previously worked together on neural networks at CTRL-Labs, a startup acquired by Meta in 2019 – was noted. “It’s about what (the ring) supports. It’s about a quality that we’ll soon realize we can’t live without.”
There’s a sense here of Callaghan’s old line about Peloton: “It’s not for bikes.” For some, the bike – even its earliest iterations – was compelling. But Peloton was really about the character that supported them and the community they created; the bike was just a ship.
The idea of betting on new trends — not just new devices — also explains how True has managed to stay financially afloat. Although AI startups raise hundreds of millions in billions of dollars right out of the gate, Truth insists that they can stick to what they do best, which is writing seed checks of $3 million to $6 million at 15% to 20% ownership in the startups that they usually see first.
Callaghan says True will raise a lot of money to support what’s working, but he’s not interested in raising billions of dollars. “Like, what? You don’t need to make something amazing today.”
The same approach changes the way AI is viewed. Although he says (when asked) that he believes that OpenAI could be worth a trillion dollars in the near future, and while he calls this the most powerful wave of computing that we have ever seen, Callaghan sees warning signs in the activities surrounding the financing of hyperscalers and the $5 trillion in CapEx spending on information and chips. “We are in a very large area, and this is a concern,” he said.
That said, they are optimistic where the real opportunity lies. Callaghan thinks that the creation of value is ahead of us – not in architecture but in use, where new forms will create new values.
It all comes back to his investment philosophy, which sounds like romanticism – the kind of VC wisdom that may sound absurd to many people: “It should be scary and lonely and you should be called crazy,” Callaghan says of successful early stage investments. “And it has to be vague and vague, but you have to have a team that you really believe in.” Five or ten years later, he says, you’ll know if you had something.
In any case, given True’s history of betting on hardware that many others have missed — fitness trackers, connected bikes, smart doorbells, and now recording rings — it’s worth listening to Callaghan say the phone’s days are numbered. Being early is the whole point – and the trend lines support his opinion: the smartphone market is well saturated, growing at about 2% per year, while wearables – smart watches, rings, and electronic devices – are increasing at double rates.
Something is changing the way we want to interact with technology, and True is betting accordingly.
Pictured above, Sandbar’s Stream ring. For more from our interview with Callaghan, take a listen Download StrictlyVC next week’s podcast; new episodes drop every Tuesday.