The lack of memory could cause the biggest mobile phone shipments to be delayed in a decade

Increasing demand for computers and data centers AI is causing a huge decrease in RAMresults in memory costs shoot a lot. Now, IDC analysts predict that this will cause smartphone shipments to drop 12.9% this year, making it the lowest in more than a decade.

Earlier this year, IDC said that manufacturers have shipped 1.26 billion devices in 2025. The company predicts that volume will drop to 1.12 billion this year.

A memory problem will cause more than a temporary drop; it reflects a reshaping of the overall market, with a reshaping of the long-term TAM (Total Addressable Market), sales location, and product mix,” Nabila Popal, senior research director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said in a statement.

Popal said that due to the decrease in memory, the selling price of the smartphone should increase by 14%.

“We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, and downstream suppliers face a significant drop in shipments amid additional pressures and lower demand at higher prices.

The company said that, as a result, the Middle East and Africa will experience shipments falling by 20% annually. Other markets such as China and Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) will also decrease by 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.

It also said it expects RAM prices to stabilize by mid-2027.

Last year, a research firm, Counterpointhe said that the shipment of mobile phones will decrease, but the penetration was only 2.6%.

At the beginning of this year, the co-founder and CEO of Nothing, Carl Pei, said that the price of mobile phones will increase in 2026 as the memory modules of mobile phones will start to cost more for manufacturers. “Companies are now faced with a simple choice: raise prices by 30% or more in some cases, or lower the specs. The “minimum budget” on which many premium brands were built will no longer be sustainable in 2026,” he said.

“As a result, some markets, especially the entry and middle segments, may shrink by 20% or more, and brands that have been dominating these segments will suffer,” Pei said.