Steve Rosenberg: Kremlin tight-lipped about leaked plans

This is a big contrast.

A U.S. Pentagon delegation arrived in Kyiv on Thursday. They are discussing the draft plan with President Zelenskyy end war in ukraine.

On the same day, President Putin appeared on Russian state television in military uniform. He was discussing with his Army Chief of Staff the issue of continuing the fight.

“We have our tasks, our goals,” the Kremlin leader declared. “The main thing is to unconditionally achieve the goals of the special military operation.”

“Izvestia” said President Putin’s visit to the command post “sends a signal to the United States that he is ready to negotiate on Ukraine on Russia’s terms.”

Which brings us back to the peace plan.

Kremlin claims It “has not received any official communication from Washington”. But a 28-point proposal has been widely leaked and reported, and widely interpreted as peace terms favorable to Russia.

What’s more, the reported plans emerged after a visit to the United States by President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. He participated in three days of discussions with President Trump’s envoys in Miami Steve Witkoff.

According to the widely circulated draft peace proposal, Ukraine will cede part of the Donbas region still under Kyiv’s control to Russia; the size of Ukraine’s armed forces will be reduced and Ukraine will vow not to join NATO.

The Kremlin would not confirm the contents. But it recommended that Kyiv agree to the terms.

“The effective work of the Russian military should convince Zelensky and his regime that it is better to reach an agreement now,” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a Kremlin conference call.

An offer of peace does not automatically mean peace.

What if there is no agreement?

Pro-Kremlin commentators insist Russia will win with or without a deal.

“Everyone thought the idea of ​​a peace deal was in trouble,” wrote the Russian news outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets. “But suddenly a rocket shot out of this swamp, bringing with it a new, or rather an ‘old new’ peace plan, with something about the Alaska summit in it. It shot out like a jack in the box.

“How long and how far will this missile fly? Will it crash with destruction in Europe and Kiev? Even if the launch is a false start, it is unlikely to change the overall trend. The balance of power is shifting in favor of Russia.”

But after nearly four years of war, Russia is also under pressure. Since the all-out invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army has not only suffered heavy losses on the battlefield, but its domestic economy is also in danger. Russia’s budget deficit is growing and oil and gas revenues are falling.

“Russian industry is somewhere between stagnation and decline,” the broadsheet Nezavisimaya Gazeta declared this week.

Still, it’s unclear whether economic pressure will change President Putin’s calculus and convince him that it’s time to end his so-called special operations: even under conditions that many believe are favorable to Moscow.

many. But not everyone.

Some elements of the peace plan did not go down well in Russia. Some reports suggest copycat security guarantees could be provided to Ukraine About NATO Article 5. This could lead Western allies to view any future Russian attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire transatlantic community and trigger a joint military response.

“This is actually the Ukraine of NATO, except without the deployment of bases and weapons on its territory,” the Moscow Komsomolets member wrote.

Full details of the peace plan have not yet been confirmed. We may be entering another period of intense diplomacy.

But for now, Russia The war against Ukraine continues.