South Africa’s tense relations with US face new test

The participation of Chinese, Iranian and Russian warships in military exercises hosted by South Africa is likely to further strain relations between the country and the United States, which are already at an all-time low.

News24 reports South Africa hopes to convince Iran to become observer Rather active participants pointed to the sensitivity of how U.S. President Donald Trump views the military exercises.

Ships flying Chinese, Iranian and Russian flags have been seen entering South Africa’s main naval base at Simon’s Town on the Cape Peninsula in recent days.

The week-long exercise begins on Friday. The alliance is led by China and involves other members of the alliance of major developing countries, known as the BRIC when it was launched in 2006.

Its abbreviation was derived from its founding members Brazil, Russia, India and China, with an “s” added to its name when South Africa joined four years later.

With the recent additions of Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the alliance is now known as “BRIC+” – and aims to challenge the political and economic power of wealthier Western countries.

South Africa’s Defense Ministry said the navies had come together “for an intensive program of joint maritime security operations, interoperability exercises and maritime protection series”.

It did not specify which countries would take part, saying only that the purpose of the training was to “ensure the safety of shipping and economic activity at sea.”

Some commentators have questioned why BRICS+ members would conduct military exercises together, given that it is an economic alliance.

Defense analyst Dean Wingrin told the BBC that “some members of BRICS+ are politically opposed to each other and have even engaged in violent border conflicts.”

This is not the first time South Africa has held naval exercises with China and Russia. The first, called Mosi, which means “smoke” in the Tswana language of South Africa, took place in 2019 without much fanfare.

But by the time of the Mossi II incident in 2023, Russia had launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine Timing of drills heavily criticized.

“It’s the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion,” Weingren said. “So, because of the timing, this caught people’s attention.”

The current exercise was originally scheduled to take place in November last year under the name “Mosi III”. But it was postponed as South Africa hosted the G20 leaders’ summit for the first time, the name was changed and the scope of invitations was expanded.

“Around the middle of last year, we started hearing that it was no longer going to be called Moshi-3, but that it was now going to be a BRICS+ maritime exercise called ‘Will for Peace,'” Wengren said.

But in the current political climate, such expansion risks further alienating South Africa from one of its main trading partners, the United States.

“South Africa has been under pressure since the Trump administration came back to power. Even before that, when the Democrats were in power, they viewed South Africa as anti-American,” William Gumede, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, told the BBC.

The impact of the Trump administration is huge. He accused South African authorities of failing to protect its minority white population and offering refugee status in the United States to Afrikaners, mostly descendants of Dutch settlers.

He then imposed higher tariffs and withdrew aid to South Africa.

Pretoria’s role also partly fueled his anger File a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). U.S. allies strongly deny accusations of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, calling them “baseless.”

But Pretoria and a proposed visit to the White House in May by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, whose delegation includes a prominent white South African golfer, failed to bridge the gap. Instead, Ramaphosa was ambushed in the Oval Office A series of controversial claims about the killings of white South African farmers.

No political party in South Africa has ever said that white genocide exists in the country. This included parties representing Afrikaners and the white community as a whole.

However, Trump reiterated such claims when he decided to boycott November’s G20 summit in Johannesburg, calling it a “total disgrace” for Africa’s largest economy to host the summit.

“Afrikaners are being killed and massacred and their lands and farms illegally confiscated,” he posted on social media platform Truth Social.

Gumede noted that South Africa’s economy, which has struggled for years, needs access to the U.S. market.

“We cannot alienate the United States. If we add the contribution of the US government, the US private sector and US civil society to the South African economy, it is much higher than China,” he said.

“U.S. companies in South Africa alone have created over half a million jobs. If you look at all the Chinese companies in South Africa and say they’ve created 10,000 jobs or even 20,000 jobs, that’s a generous estimate.”

This differs from government data released in 2024, which said China created about 400,000 jobs in South Africa.

“I think the United States is actually more strategic to us than China,” Gumede said.

Last year, the South African Reserve Bank warned that a new 30% tariff imposed by the United States on South African exports could lead to the loss of about 100,000 jobs, with the agriculture and automotive industries being the hardest hit.

Gumede explained that the African National Congress (ANC), which brought liberation to South Africa in 1994, viewed China as an ideological partner. Russia is also respected for its role in supporting the ANC’s struggle against the apartheid regime and white minority rule.

But he said the ANC had failed to update its foreign policy to accommodate its new coalition partners after losing its parliamentary majority in 2024.

It was forced to join a governing coalition that included parties such as the pro-business, Western-aligned Democratic Alliance (DA).

“When China was the majority party, China was a strategic partner of the ANC government. But now we are a national unity government, so what we should do as a country and a government is to develop a new foreign policy that is inclusive of ANC partners, because the ANC is no longer a majority partner.”

The Democratic Alliance, the country’s second largest party, harshly criticized the “Will for Peace” naval exercise.

Defense spokesman Chris Harting said in a statement that this undermined South Africa’s non-aligned foreign policy stance.

“The exercise is led by China and also involves Russia and Iran, both of which are subject to severe sanctions and both are involved in intense conflicts.

“Hosting and training such forces cannot be called neutral or non-aligned. It is a political choice whether the government recognizes it or not.”

But Wingreen said there may also be practical considerations behind the South African military’s decision to go ahead.

“South Africa is in a difficult position because our defense capabilities have been undermined by years of cuts to the Defense Forces and budget cuts,” he said.

“We don’t have that many ships with the capability to go out to sea and exercise in other countries. So we have to take every opportunity to exercise with any country that wants to come to South Africa.”

Deputy Defense Minister Bantu Holomisa also dismissed the criticism, saying it was an honor for the South African Defense Force to “conduct military exercises with well-equipped countries” and would boost the morale of the troops.

However, Wengren warned that this could spell trouble: “I don’t believe this exercise will lead to any military action by any other country.

“But it will certainly make South Africa’s trade negotiations with certain countries more difficult. It’s not the exercise itself, it’s a matter of optics.”

Other commentators such as Gumede echoed this view: “This will certainly be seen as a provocation by the Trump administration.

“Given the current geopolitics, this does not bode well for South Africa. I think it would be best for President Ramaphosa to cancel these joint naval exercises.”

However, political analyst Sandile Swana is more optimistic, even considering the recent military action by the United States to oust President Nicolás Maduro. Seizure of oil tanker leaving South American country.

“The purpose of the exercise is to secure international trade across the oceans, combat piracy and create a safe maritime environment. I think by any measure this will be welcomed by anyone,” he told the BBC, adding that relations between the United States and South Africa could not get worse.

“I don’t see any credible reason why anyone should restrict safe maritime activities. Trump has been making extreme threats and then quickly rejecting them.”

For Gumede, the economic impact of the rift is the focus.

“We face a real danger that if we don’t make our foreign policy more conciliatory, more pragmatic towards the United States, we will be caught in a fight between the United States and China, the United States and Iran, the United States and Russia.

“And South Africa will be the biggest loser.”