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The short-term market structure currently exhibits a clear higher bottom pattern, with prices oscillating within trendline channels. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase, with liquidity continuing to flow, followed by a rebound from the descending trendline and important resistance areas (4583 – 4601).
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the H4 – H2 time frame still indicates that the bearish structure has not been completely broken yet, as the 34 Exponential Moving Average (EMA34) remains below the 89 Exponential Moving Average (EMA89). However, the H1 – M30 – M15 time frame shows a return to a short-term bullish structure. There is currently no consensus on trends across time frames.
This area (4583-4601) is currently an important resistance area; a breakout of this area will cause the price to return to higher resistance levels. As for the area (4417 – 4431), it is currently considered a key support area. A breakout of this area would break the current uptrend structure, which could lead to a return of the downtrend in the medium term.
✅ Discount:
1. Purchase scenario:
– Confirmation candle above the recent resistance area (4581 – 4585).
– Confirmation of breakout of the downtrend line and breakout of the top structure below.
=> The short-term uptrend structure will be confirmed.
=> Upward momentum will intensify when price completely breaks through important resistance areas (4583 – 4601).
=> If price repeatedly bounces off the resistance area (4581 – 4585), a short-term correction to nearby support (4518 – 4522) and then the support area (4486 – 4493) is possible before the current short-term uptrend structure resumes.
2. Sales scenario:
– Price breaks out of the support area (4486 – 4493).
– A break of the uptrend line and a break of the higher bottom structure.
– The one-hour candle (H1) confirms a close below the 34 EMA area.
==> Price may reverse lower towards deeper support in the short term.
==> When price confirms a breakout of the support area (4417 – 4431), the uptrend has been broken and the downtrend is likely to continue.
Buy gold within limit: 4520 – 4522
Stop loss: 4515
✅ First target: 4525
✅ Second target: 4542
Buy gold within limits: 4491 – 4493
Stop loss: 4486
✅ First target: 4496
✅ Second goal: 4515
