OANDA: XAUUSD Gold Update by MR_gold2 — TradingView

technical analysis

• The general trend is upward within a price channel, followed by a strong downward breakout from the top of the channel
• Price is currently below the moving average → clear selling pressure
• A weak rebound attempt (a correction, not a confirmed reversal) after a sharp decline.

🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis

• A strong bullish impulsive wave has been completed (approximately wave 5)
• The current decline represents: 👉 The beginning of a major correction wave (ABC) 👉 or the beginning of a new downtrend.

Currently, we expect that we are in a weak bullish correction wave B within a bearish path.

⏱️Time analysis

• Recent price acceleration ends with strong momentum (breakout move)
• Markets typically require: ⏳ A period of volatility + a deeper correction before any new advance
• No stable bullish reversal yet

🔢 Numerical Analysis (Fibonacci and Price Geometry)

• Price quickly broke through the 38% and 50% Fibonacci areas
• Currently approaching rebalancing levels
• Upcoming digital targets closer to lower support

📰 Fundamental analysis

• Sharp declines are often caused by: ✔️ Strong dollar news ✔️ or rising bond yields
• Fundamental factors currently pose negative pressure on gold in the short term

📊 Price Action

• Long strong bearish candle
• The rebound is weak and has no motivation.
• Obvious failure to stabilize overhead resistance

👉 Indicates the seller’s current control

📍Important support and resistance levels

✅Support:

• 4,895
• 4,780
• 4,675
• 4,550 (very strong support)

❌ Resistor:

• 4,995
• 5,095
• 5,250
• 5,450 (strong display area)

📐Art model

• Breakout of ascending channel
• Pattern formation: 🔻 Failed breakout + sharp reversal (strong bearish signal)

📈 Digital model

• Acceleration then depth correction (Extended → Correction)
• This is usually followed by a decline to a lower equilibrium region

🦋 Harmonic model (possible)

• Formation probability:
◦ Bearish butterfly or
◦ Deep Crab, all target areas are below current price
•

📦 Supply and demand area

🔴Powerful offers:

• 5,200 – 5,450

🟢Strong demand:

• 4,650 – 4,550

📌 Waiting area

• Price lost the most important stability point near 5,050
• For now, any gains below this level remain weak

🎯 Pivot area

• Current axis is approximately: 👉 5,000 – 5,050, price below it = negative value