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November 20 | Technical analysis of spot gold (European and American trading hours)
📉 The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released this morning are arguably the most controversial in recent years:
“Many” members opposed a December rate cut, fearing “entrenched” inflation.
A “majority” of members warned that lowering interest rates could be misinterpreted as giving up on efforts to combat inflation.
Only a “minority” of members supported lower rates, and they were clearly in the minority.
The previous vote had a rare 10-2 split, suggesting internal conflict!
💸 The market reacted immediately to the meeting minutes:
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.59% in a single day, breaking through the 100 mark.
U.S. Treasury yields rose in tandem.
Gold fell sharply, and the zero interest rate situation exposed its weaknesses.
😱 What’s even more worrying is that there are gaps in the data!
Due to the government shutdown:
The unemployment rate for October is permanently missing;
Nonfarm payrolls data for October and November will be released together on December 16;
The Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy meeting will be held on December 9-10!
This means that the Fed will set the direction of interest rates “blindly.”
🕶️Powell previously stated that “an interest rate cut is not a foregone conclusion.” Without data, it’s difficult for the Fed to take a dovish stance.
🗣️Trump struck again, saying he “really wants to fire Powell.”
But this time, the Fed seems determined to stick to its guns, and hawkish voices prevail.
📊 Tonight’s focus: the long-awaited September non-farm payroll data. The market expects only 50,000 new jobs to be created. Even if the data is weak, it is difficult to reverse expectations of no rate cut in December. Barring an “extremely dovish” report, gold prices will struggle to gain sustained momentum.
⚔️Technical Analysis:
The daily chart shows a “tombstone cross” pattern, with resistance at the 4135/4150 area.
Pay attention to the support level of 4040 in the Bollinger Band and the psychological level of 4000.
If it breaks through 4000 points, it is recommended to go short.
If the 4100 level recovers, the next target will be the 4220/4250 area.
⚔️One hour chart:
Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the momentum is bearish after breaking through the 4080 mark.
The MACD/KDJ indicator is also bearish.
🎯 Trading strategy suggestions:
You can open positions in batches near the 4005/4000 area, with a stop loss of 3988.
Sell trades can be opened near the 4085/4106 area with stop loss at 4113.
💡Summary: The Federal Reserve’s “optimism” shakes up the gold bull market – low interest rates + strong hedging demand. Gold prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and real bullish opportunities may not emerge until the first quarter of next year.
🚀 Let’s pay attention to the market on the night when the non-agricultural data is released! The guide will be updated immediately, so stay tuned!
