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BRIAN XAUUSD – Weak nonfarm payrolls data boosts gold, but next week remains a value zone play
Gold prices rose more than 1% after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report showed 92,000 people lost their jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. This change has pushed up interest rate cut expectations (about 43 basis points have been priced in), as the market favors more accommodative policies, thus supporting gold prices in the short term.
However, the gold dollar is still heading into an overall weak week as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising yields continue to cap the cap. As we move into next week, the appropriate approach would be to trade accepted or rejected prices around the volume distribution value area.
Daily images using size files (D1)
The price is currently trading between two main value references:
VAH – medium-term selling zone (characteristic value): ~5.28–5.32
This is the upper limit of value, where yield often meets supply. If gold fails to hold this area, sellers typically regain control quickly.
Highly Liquid Long-Term Buy Zone (Fundamental Value): ~4.88–4.95
This is the main support range. If price returns to this area, absorption and base building may occur.
VAL – Short-term reaction zone (deep support): ~4.70–4.74
These only make sense if prices fall severely and the market accepts lower levels.
next week
Scenario 1: Ascent to VAH, then descent
If the price approaches 5.28-5.32 but fails to hold above it, expect prices to move back towards 4.88-4.95 as the market rebalances.
Situation 2: Fracture above VAH and hospital admission
If the price breaks 5.28-5.32 and maintains strong daily acceptance, the market will move from a pullback to a continuation. The cleanest entry point is to retest VAH as support rather than chasing the first push.
Scenario 3: Pullback into long-term buy zone
If price moves towards 4.88-4.95 and investors buy (clean hold, strong reaction), then this is the highest quality area to rebuild long positions back into VAH.
Risk scenario: drop to VAL
A break below 4.88-4.95 and the price fails to recover could accelerate the downward trend, with the next reaction area being 4.70-4.74.
strategic focus
Two areas of execution will require decisions next week: VAH (selling pressure and acceptance) and the high-liquidity buy area (absorption and breakdown). Be patient, wait for confirmation, and avoid intermediate transactions.
Follow Brian to get clear, actionable updates on weekly XAUUSD scenarios, volume profile levels, and when the market moves.
