Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H4 | Gold is accumulating on trend lines, waiting for structural break to take off
Gold prices rose after testing the uptrend line twice, and then traded sideways around the 4065 area. This price area has been accumulating almost all week in the second half – indicating that the selling forces did not have enough liquidity to pull the price lower, while the price gap remained wide based on Fibonacci numbers. My preferred scenario is this: Gold continues to “squeeze” the inside of the triangle and then breaks out to form a new wave.
Macro – Federal Reserve Background
Federal Reserve Board member Collins emphasized that there are still reasons to be cautious about cutting interest rates at the December meeting. She said:
This is a complex phase, and it’s not surprising that there are differences of opinion within the Fed.
The Fed must balance its competing employment and inflation goals.
This makes it difficult for the market to clearly define a rate hike scenario, so gold continues to choose to absorb around important technical areas rather than shooting in one direction.
Technical Analysis – Trendlines, Fibonacci, Volume Profiles
The current structure on H4 is a triangle pattern where:
The upper trend line is down from the old high of 42xx.
The lower trend line dropped from the bottom at the end of October and acted as a dynamic support.
4060-4070 Area: Last week’s “balanced” price area – the area where prices have been trading sideways for the longest time and is a reference for short-term trends.
Importance level:
4132: Close to resistance, consistent with the VAH area of the current volume curve.
4171: Higher resistance, close to the Fibonacci 1.0 retracement area.
4242: Fibonacci extension (1.618) + historical resistance – prone to strong profit-taking.
4347: Expansion area 2.618 – reference target for successful top breakthrough.
4022 and 3997: Important support near the lower trendline – key buying areas if a liquidity clearing action occurs.
When the price decisively breaks through one of the two trend lines, the new trend in H4 will be more obvious; the trading plan will follow this trend.
Risk management and avoidance
H4 Close below 3997: The triangle structure is broken in the downtrend, all sell trades prioritize the downward zone – mid-term buy orders should not be kept in this case.
H4 closed above 4245 with good trading volume: the top of the triangle was considered a successful breakout, all short trades in this area were cancelled, and buying was concentrated according to the new trend.
Which scenario would you prefer next week: an upward breakout testing 4242-4347, or a decline to 4022-3997 before a rebound? Leave a comment and follow the LiamTrading channel on TradingView to receive daily XAUUSD updates.
