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XAUUSD (H4) – Liam’s continued plans
Trend remains strong, but price elongation buys on dips, not tops
quick summary
Gold continues to trade steadily within a strong bullish structure.
Macro pressures on safe-haven demand have eased slightly as geopolitical and trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe ease, while rising oil prices (supported by Saudi Aramco demand expectations) have kept inflation expectations alive.
Despite the uptrend, price is currently elongated near the upper band, so today’s execution should focus on buying on structural pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts.
Overall context (supportive, but less explosive)
Reduced geopolitical friction between the United States and Europe has eased panic-induced financial flows.
Rising oil prices have kept inflation expectations stable, limiting downward pressure on gold prices.
The US dollar remains relatively stable (CAD/USD stable), suggesting that gold’s strength is driven by structure rather than pure fear trading.
➡️ Conclusion: Trend-friendly environment, but volatility is now more technical than headline-driven.
Technical Vision (H4 – Chart based)
Gold is following a clear uptrend line, with a swing leg followed by a minor pullback.
Main levels of the chart:
✅ Upper extension/continuation target: 5000+ areas
✅ Bullish continuation buying zone: 4580 – 4620 (previous breakout + Fibonacci support)
✅ Trend Line Support: Dynamic (Bullish)
✅ Support deeper correction: 4400 – 4450
Prices are currently trading above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, raising the possibility of a short-term consolidation or pullback before continuing.
Trading Scenario (Liam Method: Horizontal Trading)
1️⃣ Purchase scenario (priority – trend continuation)
A. Buy Pullback Structure (Preferred Setting)
✅Purchase area: 4580 – 4620
Conditions: Stability above trendline + bullish reaction from M15-H1
SL: Structure/Below Trend Line
TP1: Last peak
TP2：4900
TP3: Expand to 5000+
Logic: This area is consistent with previous resistance-turned-support and Fibonacci retracement levels—the entry point with the highest continuation probability compared to buying at the top.
B. Buy deeper pullbacks (only if volatility increases)
✅ Purchase area: 4400 – 4450
Conditions: Strong Rejection/Liquidity Sweep
Target price: 4580 → 4800+
Logic: This is the last clean structural support in the current trend. The pullback here may be corrective rather than the end of a trend.
2️⃣ Sell scenario (contrarian, tactics only)
❌ When price remains above the uptrend line, there is no swing oversold.
Short positions only show up as very quick trades at the top and clear rejections at lower times.
Main points
A strong trend punishes impatience – waiting for a pullback.
Avoid getting into the middle of the leg after the impulse candle.
If price accelerates vertically without correcting, take a step back.
What is your approach:
Wait for a pullback to 4580-4620 to join the trend, or wait for a further pullback towards 4450?
— Liam
