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XAUUSD (H3) – Liam’s Plan
Looking for distribution and sales feedback during the final stages of expansion
quick summary
Gold prices have surged higher and are currently in the late stages of a bullish expansion, with prices approaching highs after experiencing several momentum swings.
From a macro perspective, political commentary from Europe highlights structural shifts in global power:
Europe’s influence has waned as discussions between the United States and Russia bypass Brussels.
The BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization currently represent more than half of the world’s population.
Calls for renewed energy cooperation between the EU and Russia underscore the long-term uncertainty in Europe’s geopolitical situation.
This backdrop maintains structural support for gold, but at current levels risks are shifting towards allocation rather than clean continuation.
Overall context (supportive, but risk asymmetry)
The global balance of power continues to shift from West to East, stimulating demand for hard assets in the long term.
However, much of the near-term geopolitical premium has already been priced in following the recent vertical volatility.
Result: The uptrend may continue, but the risk/reward now favors a selling reaction rather than fresh buying.
➡️Conclusion: Don’t fight the overall trend, but don’t follow the price either.
Technical Vision (H3 – Chart based)
Gold remains within a broader uptrend, but price action is showing signs of slowing and may be distributing near a top.
Main levels of the chart:
✅ High selling area: 5000 – 5050 (upper limit/distribution area)
✅ Sell reaction zone: 4920 – 4950 (local value/rejection zone)
✅ Bullish retracement support: 4700 – 4750 (Fibonacci+ structure)
✅ Key Liquidity/Deep Support: 4350 – 4450
Prices trade away from equilibrium, increasing the likelihood of a return in value or sell-side liquidity.
Trading Scenario (Liam Method: Horizontal Trading)
1️⃣ Sales scenario (first-last stage response)
A. High altitude/distribution center sales
✅ Sales: 5000 – 5050
Conditions: Significant rejection/loss of power on M15–H1
SL: Over the top
TP1:4920
TP2:4750
TP3: 4450 (if distribution is expanded)
Logic: Late rallies often form a top or distribution pattern before pulling back. This area favors risk-adjusted short positions rather than buying on a breakout.
for. sell high/react
✅ Promotion: 4920 – 4950
Conditions: Failure to sustain highs + bearish turn on lower time frames
Target price: 4750 → 4450
Logic: This area acts as a reaction zone within the distribution area – ideal for tactical selling.
2️⃣ Purchase scenario (minor – value only)
Only buy during deep corrections
✅Purchase area: 4350 – 4450
Conditions: Liquidity Retracement + Strong Bullish Reaction
Target price: 4700 → 4920
Logic: This is the first area where long-term buyers regain a clear advantage in R:R. No interest in buying anything above value.
Main points
Late trends punish the impatient.
Avoid going into the middle of the range.
Expect a false breakout near the top.
Confirmed > Convicted.
What is your impression here:
Sell the distribution near the highs, or wait patiently for a deeper correction to the 4450-4700 values?
— Liam
