Is the coup real or a “hoax”?

Military takeovers are nothing new in Guinea-Bissau. Since independence from Portugal in 1974, the West African country has experienced at least nine successful coup attempts.

But when military officials announced last Wednesday that they had taken control of the country, some analysts and politicians were skeptical.

All the classic elements of a coup were there: gunshots were heard near the presidential palace, President Umaro Sissoko Embalo was arrested, and soldiers spoke on state television.

Still, other circumstances surrounding the incident have been questioned, with Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan joining those who believe Embalo orchestrated the takeover.

To further complicate matters, the military insisted to the BBC that they had taken over the country but condemned the use of the word “coup”.

Junta leaders said they took action to thwart a plot by unnamed politicians “backed by known drug lords” to destabilize the country, which has become a known hub for drug trafficking.

Just three days before the military takeover, Bissau-Guineans voted in presidential elections. Embalo, 53, is running for a second term and his closest challenger is Fernando Díaz da Costa.

Díaz has the backing of former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira, who was initially supposed to run for president on behalf of the main opposition party, PAIGC. However, Pereira was disqualified from the competition after authorities said he submitted documents late.

The election results were due to be announced on Thursday, a day after the coup.

After gunshots were heard in the capital Bissau, Embalo told French news site Youth Afrique that he was arrested by uniformed men at the presidential palace.

Military officers then appeared on state television to announce they had deposed the president in a bid to thwart a plot to destabilize the country. The military suspended the electoral process and prevented the results from being announced.

“I have been deposed,” Embalo told France 24 in a brief phone call.

Others were also detained, including Pereira, Interior Minister Boche Kander and Army Chief of Staff General Biag Naentan.

The headquarters of the electoral commission was attacked and an official revealed that armed men wearing hoods destroyed files and the main computer server where the results were stored, meaning the results could not be announced.

The opposition, civil society groups and politicians from other West African countries expressed skepticism about the military’s statement.

After his release on Thursday, Embalo flew to neighboring Senegal on a Senegalese military aircraft – a detail that PAIGC official Flavio Batikon Ferreira found suspicious.

“The way he left Guinea-Bissau, being escorted like a tourist with his family and luggage, without any obstacles or resistance… all this suggests that this was not a coup, because we all know how coups work,” Ferreira, a former member of parliament, told the BBC.

In a series of coups across Africa over the past five years, no deposed leader has been allowed to leave the country like Embalo.

However, some analysts told the BBC that the Guinea-Bissau military may believe that flying Embalo out as quickly as possible would help smooth the transition.

Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan also questioned the coup, saying heads of state are typically not allowed to speak on the phone with foreign media during military takeovers.

The former president, who is part of an election observation team in Guinea-Bissau, told reporters: “What happened in Guinea-Bissau was not a coup… for lack of a better word, I would say it was a ceremonial coup.”

Jonathan is right, deposed leaders often have no contact with the outside world while in captivity. But there are exceptions—— Gabon’s former president makes video urging ‘friends around the world’ to offer support after being ousted in 2023.

The appointment of General Horta Ntam as Guinea-Bissau’s new military leader has also raised suspicions as the general is considered a close ally of Embalo.

Embalo has yet to respond to accusations that he plotted a coup.

Critics have long accused Embalo of fabricating the coup attempt to crack down on dissent, but the former leader has denied the accusations.

He said he went through three takeover attempts in total. In December 2023, after one such coup plotEmbalo dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament. Since then, Guinea-Bissau has not had a legislative body.

Some civil society groups have accused Embalo of orchestrating last week’s coup to prevent the announcement of any unfavorable election results.

Political analyst Ryan Cummings said the president’s previous actions – For example, postponing the election for a year – fueled this suspicion. However, Mr Cummings told the BBC it was also “very possible” for the armed forces to act independently to prevent a political deadlock, with both Embalo and Dias claiming they had won the election.

Beverly Ochieng, a West Africa analyst at intelligence firm Control Risks, also acknowledged skepticism about the coup.

However, she said tensions within the political elite, coupled with the decision to ban Pereira from running for president, “could lead to military intervention”.

Former Army Chief of Staff General Ntamu has been sworn in as President for a one-year transition period.

The general appointed a new cabinet, consisting of 23 ministers and 5 secretaries of state.

Embalo, on the other hand, has left Senegal for Congo-Brazzaville. According to sources in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, he left because he was upset that Senegal’s prime minister called the coup a “hoax.”

Dias said he escaped arrest on the day of the coup and had been granted asylum in Nigeria.

Hundreds of protesters took to the streets on Saturday demanding Pereira’s release. They also called on authorities to release the election results.

In addition, three civil society groups called for a general strike and civil disobedience campaign to restore “electoral truth”.

But reactions were mixed, with some residents praising the military and hoping for an orderly transition.

Suncar Gassama told the BBC: “I have nothing against the military regime as long as they improve living conditions in the country.”

Former MP Ferreira described the atmosphere in the country as “tense”.

“No one knows what the future holds for Guinea-Bissau,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ines Silva