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Dorchester Center, MA 02124

“XAUUSD” crashes on 1D MA200 after 2.5 years! Save the ceasefire?
Three days ago we issued a strong sell signal after gold (green trendline) hit the 1D MA100 (orange trendline)
Our 4220 target and 1DM200 were reached for the first time in nearly 2.5 years (since November 13, 2023), with the market immediately reacting with a rally 5 days after Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran.
The pattern that emerged was a descending channel, and a technical recovery was very natural after the 1D RSI exaggerated. Based on the first artificial leg of the pattern, it may reach the 0.786 Fib level before the trend reverses, but from a technical perspective, we expect to hit the 4H MA100 (red trendline) while maintaining the 1D MA50 (blue trendline) as short-term resistance.
Our next mid-term target is the flow height trendline of 4100 in December 2024.