Has Venezuela been abandoned by its most powerful ally?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could be forgiven for wondering who his real friends are.

His reliance on China and Russia, his two main allies, once rock-solid, now looks increasingly uncertain.

The two countries have supported Venezuela’s socialist-led government politically, financially and militarily for years – a relationship that began under Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, former President Hugo Chávez.

But experts say the support now appears to be largely symbolic, with statements of support rather than concrete military or financial aid.

The shift comes as the United States has deployed air and naval forces to the Caribbean, including a nuclear-powered submarine, spy planes and 15,000 troops.

The United States has carried out attacks on ships allegedly smuggling drugs in the region, killing more than 80 people, and in recent days it seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.

The Trump administration said the military buildup and attacks were targeting drug trafficking, and the tanker was subject to sanctions. But many experts – and Maduro himself – believe Washington’s real goal is regime change.

So what has changed at the moment when Venezuela’s president needs help the most?

Professor Fernando Reyes Mata, director of the China Studies Center at Chile’s Andres Bello University, believes that Venezuela’s priority has been significantly reduced for Beijing and Moscow, especially since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

“Given the war between Russia and Ukraine and other issues such as China’s attempts to coexist internationally with President Trump, there is no reason for Russia or China to fully defend Venezuela now,” he said.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has poured significant resources into the conflict, straining both its finances and its military. It also faces sweeping Western sanctions.

This leaves allies who previously benefited from Kremlin support with fewer resources, said Professor Vladimir Ruvinsky, director of the Politics and International Relations Laboratory (PoInt) at the University of Assisi in Colombia.

Moscow’s long-time allies in the Middle East, Syria and Iran, have recently faced similar fates.

“Russia will not risk more sanctions than are already in place, nor will China risk more tariffs by defending Maduro,” Professor Ruvinsky explained.

According to the Washington Post, Maduro requested military assistance from China and Russia at the end of October.

Kremlin Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said “we support Venezuela as it supports us,” while urging the Trump administration to avoid an escalation of the crisis, Russian media reported.

The Kremlin said Putin had called Maduro to confirm his support after the U.S. seized the tanker.

But so far, Moscow has not provided any material assistance.

Like Moscow, Beijing has shown no sign it will defend Venezuela militarily, instead condemning what it calls “external interference” and urging restraint.

Experts say China’s defense of Maduro could jeopardize recent diplomatic gains between Beijing and Washington while offering little beyond ideological alignment.

Sino-U.S. relations have been particularly tense since Trump imposed tariffs on several countries. But a late-October meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea – viewed by both sides as positive – opened the door to a new deal and lower tariffs on some products.

Experts say Venezuela’s economic collapse and deterioration of its oil industry have further eroded Chinese support. Beijing has reduced new lending in recent years and is now focusing on recovering past loans.

“I think China is willing to negotiate with any government that ultimately replaces Maduro and believes that supporting Maduro too strongly now could have negative consequences if the regime falls,” Professor Ruwinski said.

Professor Reyes Mata believes that “neither country is willing to support a regime with so little internal support.”

“In addition, both Russia and China know that the last presidential election was very clearly characterized by fraud.”

The July 2024 election was marred by serious allegations of fraud. The National Electoral Council (CNE), dominated by government allies, declared Maduro the winner but, unlike previous elections, did not provide detailed results.

The opposition, led by this year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, has released election records showing opposition candidate Edmundo González won.

Professor Ruwinski said: “This time, Maduro is completely alone.” He believes that Maduro’s time is “running out.”

“Russia and China may continue to criticize U.S. intervention, but they are unwilling to go further. Beyond some verbal statements, the support he had in the past is effectively gone.”

Additional reporting from BBC World News