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The recent daily advance has been as close as possible to a complete pentagon structure (1-2-3-4-5), and as momentum at the top wanes, we are starting to see a breakout of the 4-hour structure. This indicates that we have entered a big daily correction (ABC) and not just a small one.
The most likely scenario at the moment📉
On the daily chart we are in a bearish wave A (the 4 hourly line is clear).
Any upcoming rally is likely to be a corrective wave B, followed by a bearish wave C, which could extend to the 4,800 area, and then 4,400 as a strong structural target.
Conditions for continued decline:
• Steady below 5,000
• Clear breakout with 4-hour close below 4,900
Then the path gradually opens to deeper levels.
Alternative scene📈
If there is a strong rebound and steadily breaks through 5100, then we will re-evaluate. It may be only 4 daily waves, leaving 5 new rising waves.
in conclusion:
The current trend is for a medium-term bearish correction, but its real confirmation will be a break above daily support, not just a 4-hour candle.