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After the recent pullback, most traders have turned bearish on gold.
But the structure of H4 might tell a completely different story.
Gold may be in the process of withdrawing liquidity ahead of a strong expansionary move.
open to curiosity
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are currently squeezed between two major structures:
• Falling resistance line
• Support line rises
When prices compress in this way, the market is typically preparing for a massive liquidity-driven move.
The question now is simple:
Is gold gearing up for a liquidity drawdown ahead of the next higher expansion?
overall narrative
From a macro perspective, there are several factors that may support gold’s volatility:
• Markets continue to price in the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year, which typically supports gold.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have kept safe-haven demand strong.
• The U.S. dollar rally is starting to lose momentum, giving gold a chance to stabilize.
When macro uncertainty and technical compression go hand in hand, markets tend to produce strong breakouts.
Technical Overview (H4)
When looking at the structure of H4, there are some important observations worth noting:
• Price forms higher lows along rising support line
• Price above bearish resistance limits
• The market recently reacted from the 5186 support area
This creates a classic squeeze pattern, where liquidity accumulates on both sides.
Critical levels to monitor:
support
5186
first resistance
5372
main resistance
5428
Above this area, a larger liquidity block lies near 5,600.
Two market scenarios
bullish scenario
If gold holds support at 5186 and continues to make higher lows:
Prices may be:
Breakthrough 5372
Retest the structure
Expand to 5428
If momentum accelerates, the market may target the 5,600 liquidity area.
bearish scenario
If the price falls below 5186, the bullish structure becomes invalid.
In this case, gold might:
• Liquidity under withdrawal of support
• Move towards demand area 5100 – 5050 before looking for buyers again.
open discussion
Gold is currently trading within a tight pressure structure.
Historically, these setups have tended to lead to explosive moves once liquidity has been taken away.
So the real question is:
Is gold ready to break through 5600?
or
Will we see liquidity drop first?
How do you feel about gold now?
