Gold rises to $4,400! bull vs bull conflict

Gold rises to $4,400! The long-short debate is behind this historic rise 🚀 At the opening of European trading on Monday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) continued its strong upward trend, hitting a high of nearly $4,400, setting another all-time high! There is a mixture of enthusiasm and caution in the market at the moment, with gold prices appearing to rise strongly, but winds also appearing to be strong at high altitudes.

🔥Main driving force for the rise: Increased expectations of interest rate cuts

Recent U.S. inflation and employment data have shown signs of slowing, leading to growing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Lower interest rates mean that the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold is lower, which is undoubtedly the most powerful underlying logic behind this wave of gold strength.

The easing signal of a shift in monetary policy has become the most significant “light” in the gold market.

🌍The demand for safe haven continues to increase

In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical tensions have also led to continued gains in gold prices:

Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved

Relations between the United States and Venezuela are escalating. Amid this uncertainty, mutual funds are turning to safe-haven assets, and gold, a thousands-year-old store of value, is once again shining with its safe-haven appeal.

⚠️Short-term risks: profit taking and data testing

The market is not optimistic at all:

As the long holiday approaches, trading becomes more cautious.

Some bulls chose to take profits at higher levels, which could limit the potential for short-term gains.

The most important points today:

National activity index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Preliminary estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP (may significantly affect interest rate expectations and gold price fluctuations)

📈 Technical Analysis: Trend remains strong, but volatility needs to be monitored.

Judging from the four-hour chart:

Gold prices are well above the 100-period moving average, maintaining a strong bullish pattern.

The Bollinger Bands are widening, volatility is rising, and the trend is clear.

The relative strength index (RSI) is in slightly bullish territory, but is not overbought, suggesting there is a risk of chasing higher price levels.

Critical level:

Support: $4,330 (a break above this level could lead to a technical pullback)

Resistance: $4,380 (holding above this level could lead to further gains)

Alert: False breakout and consolidation at $4,400.

💡Editor’s point of view: Gold’s recent record highs are a typical result of the integration of interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, reflecting the market’s high sensitivity to the macroeconomic environment. As long as fundamentals remain intact, the medium-term uptrend will persist. However, at such high levels, volatility is expected to intensify and the risk of a short-term economic downturn increases. Facing this golden wave, we must not only embrace it bravely, but also remain calm and vigilant.

Trends are certainly useful, but risk management cannot be ignored; although gold is dazzling, we must also treat it with caution.

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