Gold prices within a specific range: Buy the dip

Hello everyone!

Regarding your most important inquiries, the latest market developments are summarized in the following summary report:

**Today’s Market Overview:** The price of gold fell sharply after rising to $4,888 last night and is currently stable around $4,740. The battle between bulls and bears intensifies as rapidly changing news headlines cause massive market swings.

**News and Highlights:**

1. Iran claimed that the ceasefire agreement was “violated” and the basis of negotiations was shaken.

2. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil exceeded $98, increasing market concerns about rising inflation. Rising oil prices, in turn, have increased market expectations of tightening monetary policy, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

3. Market risk aversion continues to rise. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped to almost non-existent levels, with some market participants even beginning to anticipate the possibility of a rate hike.

**Basic logic:** Unexpected developments in geopolitics + rising oil prices + expectations of tightening monetary policy = gold prices are in trouble, with limited room for gains and losses, leading to a significant increase in market volatility. **Technical Analysis:** Main Range: 4700–4800

**Resistance (higher):** 4758–4760 / 4806–4820

**Support (Bottom):** 4700–4680 / 4620–4600 (Note: The 4700–4680 range represents key short-term support; any break below this support indicates a downtrend).

**Symmetrical triangle accumulation range:** 4700–4740 (waiting for directional breakthrough).

**Trading Strategy:**

**Buy on dips (pullback):** It is recommended to enter a buy position once the price stabilizes in the $4730-4740 range. Target price: $4765-4800. Stop Loss: Below $4720. **Continued Rise:** If gold exceeds $4,780, the target range will be between $4,800 and $4,820; if the price falls below $4,670, the target range will be between $4,620 and $4,600.

**Key events worthy of attention:**

**Today’s U.S. CPI data:** If the data exceeds market expectations, this will be a negative indicator for gold prices (because it strengthens expectations of rising interest rates); conversely, if the data is lower than market expectations, it will be a positive indicator for gold prices.

**Progress in ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran:** Any news related to these negotiations could cause sudden and violent fluctuations in gold prices, potentially reaching $50 in an instant.

**Bottom line:** Gold prices are currently trading within a tight range around the key pivot point of $4,740, with relatively limited upside or downside potential.

It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices or trying to buy low; instead, wait patiently for the CPI data to be released before making a judgment on the market direction.

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