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The pressure on the US dollar eases and gold prices continue to rise, but the next breakthrough still needs structure
XAUUSD is trading higher again, although the market still needs to confirm whether this rally can translate into a stronger continuation.
Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, supported by easing pressure on the dollar and changes in macroeconomic expectations. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire eases some of the immediate geopolitical risk premium, but at the same time weakens demand for the U.S. dollar as a defensive haven. The shift helped gold regain strength.
At the same time, inflation concerns have eased, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive policies. When interest rate expectations weaken and the dollar loses momentum, gold will naturally find more breathing room. This is exactly the context that supports the recovery of XAUUSD.
However, the market is still not in a completely one-sided environment.
The overall tone has become more supportive, but gold still needs technical structures to confirm buyers are in control beyond the current recovery. This is where diagrams become important.
Technical structure
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its recent recovery base and is currently trading above the 4,600-4,650 area. This breakout is significant as it suggests buyers have successfully restored short-term structure after previous weakness.
The diagram now focuses on a clear path:
Price has been pushed above the local breakout area
The next buying area is around 4,974–5,032
Above this, broad upside liquidity approaches 5,200
If momentum continues to build, the high sell-off liquidity area near 5,574 will be the next major target
Looking at the bottom, the deeper structural low lies further away, around 4,074. This level is not the focus right now, but it would still identify a broader invalid zone if the current rally fails significantly.
So structure is a construct.
The market has completed its first task and regained short-term support.
Now he needs to prove he can hold the break and move on to the next liquidity zone.
main price area
Break through the base now: Area 4,600–4,650
This is an area that protects the current bullish structure. As long as prices remain above it, the technical recovery remains in effect.
Buy Area/Next Upside Target: 4,974–5,032
This is the next important area of price resistance. A move towards this area would confirm that the breakout extends with stronger momentum.
Buyer Liquidity: 5,200 Area
If the market breaks out of the first bullish zone, this will become the next important target.
High Seller Liquidity: Area 5,574
This is a broader upside decline on the chart and a major upside target for bullish momentum to continue to build.
Minimum point of sale/deep failure: 4,074
This is a critical structural basis if the current recovery fails further.
market scene
Scenario 1 – Hold the breakout and continue higher
This is a constructive idea.
If gold continues to hold above the current breakout lows, the market could extend to 4,974-5,032 and then move higher to 5,200. If momentum builds further, a broader liquidity area could emerge around 5,574.
Scenario 2 – Back up, then continue
This is also realistic.
After several strong trading days, temporary declines will be normal. If price tests the breakout area around 4,600-4,650 and buyers react again, the bullish structure will remain intact and a stronger foundation may be laid for continuation.
Situation 3 – Failure to return under fracture
This is a caution road.
If gold prices fall below the recovered structure and are unable to maintain the current base, the breakout loses its quality and the recovery weakens. This would delay any continuation higher and shift the market to a more corrective tone.
Market vision
The main difference now is that gold no longer reacts solely to support levels. It began to be built on the restored structure, which is what gives the current movement more weight.
A weaker dollar, less inflationary pressures and less aggressive comments from the Federal Reserve are all positive for gold prices. But for the bullish case to be more convincing, the chart still needs to show a continuation of the next liquidity area, not just a short-term bounce.
I believe the breakout is valid, the structure is improving, and there is still room for buyers to move higher. But the next real test will begin at 4,974-5,032.
For now, the message is clear: Gold has regained momentum, and as long as the breakout fundamentals remain intact, gold’s path will continue toward higher liquidity.
