Gold prices fall as unemployment falls

Gold prices are starting to lose momentum after recent U.S. jobs data showed a fall in the unemployment rate, reinforcing the argument that the U.S. economy remains relatively strong.

Stronger business conditions typically support the U.S. dollar and bond yields, which could put short-term pressure on gold. That seems to be how the market is reacting right now.

Instead of rising, gold prices fell instead as traders reassessed expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could be delayed if economic data continues to be strong.

This creates an interesting setup from both a macro and technical perspective ahead of the upcoming conference.

overall narrative

There are several major forces affecting gold right now:

• The U.S. unemployment rate fell, indicating continued strength in the labor market.
• Strong labor data may dampen expectations for significant easing from the Federal Reserve.
• A stronger dollar and stable yields could put downward pressure on gold.
• Market attention may shift from inflation concerns to “longer-term higher” interest rate expectations.

As a result of this shift, gold now responds more to interest rate expectations than to safe-haven demand.

Technology Outlook (Second Half of the Year)

On the half-hour chart, gold previously formed a large symmetrical triangle, which usually indicates that volatility will expand once the structure is broken.

The price has now broken below the triangle formation, indicating that liquidity may be shifting to lower levels.

After a fracture:

• Price failed to sustain above 5128 resistance
• Momentum turns downward after the structure is broken
• Markets are currently moving into less liquid areas

This type of move typically occurs when the market withdraws internal liquidity before targeting deeper support.

critical level

🔴Resistance/Construction: 5128

📊 Current axis: 5109

🟡Support 1:5059

🎯 Primary Liquidity Target: 5013

Scenario 1 — Bearish

If prices remain below the broken structure, sellers may continue to move into deeper liquidity areas.

Possible paths:

5109 → 5059 → 5013

This will be a withdrawal of liquidity towards the next area of ​​demand.

Scenario 2 — Bullish

If the buyer can restore the damaged structure:

5109 → 5128 Recovery → Short squeeze higher

However, as long as the price remains below resistance, downward pressure is likely to dominate in the short term.

market discussion

Gold just broke out of a major triangle formation while labor data strengthened the USD narrative.

So, the main questions now are:

Is gold ready to withdraw liquidity towards 5013…

Or will buyers re-enter near support?