Gold market analysis: Reduced geopolitical risks trigger massive selling, long-term risk aversion logic remains

🔍Fundamental review: Spot gold encountered heavy selling at the opening of Asian trading on Thursday (January 22), with the price falling from a high to around US$4,772 per ounce, a daily drop of nearly US$59. The decline was mainly due to Trump giving up his threat to impose tariffs on Europe and reaching a “future agreement framework” on Greenland, which temporarily eased market risk aversion. Although gold prices fell from record highs on Wednesday, they still maintained positive gains this week, reflecting the sensitive impact of geopolitical changes on gold prices.

📈 Factors supporting the long-term trend:

Despite large short-term fluctuations, gold’s long-term trend is still supported by multiple factors:

The cumulative growth in 2025 is 64%, and the growth so far in 2026 is more than 10%;

inflation expectations and ongoing geopolitical disputes;

uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and legal challenges to its independence;

Potential risks such as Arctic resource conflicts still exist;

Japan’s financial concerns may indirectly support the dollar and gold.

⚠️Risk warning: Geopolitical situations (such as NATO developments, EU summits), Trump-related news, and U.S. economic data (such as personal consumption expenditures index, initial jobless claims) may cause news fluctuations, and investors need to be cautious.

📊 Technical analysis:

Daily chart: Still in an upward trend, but showing signs of peaking. Key support lies at 4730 and 4650 (the starting point and range of this week’s advance); any break below these levels would confirm a deeper correction.

4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price has fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The next major support level is 4730 (mid-rail). A break above this level could test the 4600 area.

Resistance and support levels:
Upward resistance: 4820-4830, 4840-4850
Downward support: 4730, 4650-4660, 4600

🎯Trading strategy suggestions:
Selling strategy: Sell in batches at 4840-4845, with a stop loss of $8 and a target of 4800-4750. If the price falls, the target will be added to 4700.

Buying strategy: Buy in batches at 4700-4705, stop loss 8 US dollars, target 4730-4750, if the price falls, add the target 4770.

💡Summary: Although Trump’s news caused a short-term decline in gold prices, it did not change its long-term upward trend. Gold remains a safe-haven asset given continued global uncertainty and potential geopolitical risks. Investors should respond rationally to the fluctuations caused by the news, flexibly adjust strategies based on macroeconomic data and technical signals, and strictly control position sizes and stop-loss orders.

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