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Gold prices continue to move higher on the back of a technical recovery and escalating geopolitical tensions. The breakdown of talks with Iran and rising threats surrounding energy infrastructure have added new uncertainties, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
The market is no longer reacting like it was during a sell-off phase – prices are now spinning with clear intent.
Market background
The failure of diplomatic negotiations and a renewed escalation of risks in the Middle East are rapidly changing sentiment.
Capital has begun to reallocate into defensive assets amid threats to oil supplies and broader regional instability. Gold will naturally benefit from this shift.
This backdrop underpins the current uptrend, especially after negative liquidity was excluded from the market during the previous period.
artistic appearance
Structurally, in the second half of the year, gold prices completed a clear seller sweep near 4,350 points, and then responded strongly to the upside. The market is currently constructing higher lows and regaining structure in the short term.
Prices are currently trading around 4,550-4,570, close to the FVG area tested previously. There have been reactions across the region that suggest supplies are being absorbed rather than aggressively defended.
Above, the next key area is around 4,780-4,800, where the larger FVG and supply area coincides with the downtrend line. If the momentum continues, this will be the next big goal.
If prices can sustain this recovery, the 5,100-5,200 demand range remains a target on higher time frames.
critical level
Support/Base: 4,450 – 4,460
Current zone: 4,550 – 4,570
Next target (FVG): 4,780 – 4,800
Main Resistance (OB): 5,100 – 5,200
Seller Liquidity (Low): ~4,350
market scene
The first scenario – continuous upward (possible)
Keeping prices above 4,450 keeps the structure constructive. The price may continue to rise towards 4,780-4,800, filling the remaining imbalance and testing the descending trendline.
The second situation – short-term adjustment before expansion
Prices may briefly pull back to 4,500-4,520 points to rebalance before continuing higher. As long as higher lows are maintained, the uptrend remains intact.
Failure Scenario – Structural Failure
Any move below 4,450 could weaken the recovery and signal that the market is not ready to continue the uptrend.
Comment
A key shift has been put in place – negative liquidity has been removed and prices are now moving within a controlled recovery structure.
As geopolitical risks increase, gold is receiving additional support from major economic flows, consistent with technical structures.
As long as the market remains at its current base, gold prices are still expected to rise further to 4,800 points, and possibly even higher.
