◆Market background
Gold prices rose to 4,232 before weakening after a bullish breakout on BOS. The subsequent correction formed a bearish CHoCH, indicating a decrease in the strength of the correction wave.

The price is moving within a short-term ascending channel, close to the FVG – Fibonacci – scalp area where strong reactions often occur.

◆ SMC and price action

• Support at 4,191 remains an important structural level.
• The 4,232 FVG area may be a reaction point for sellers.
• If the uptrend line is broken, liquidity may retreat below 4,191 before rebounding.

◆Main scenes

➤ Scenario 1: Price rejected at FVG 4,232 → Favoring short sale

• Condition: Rejection Candle/Weak Pattern
• Target:
▪ 4,210
▪ 4,191

➤ Scenario 2: FVG Breakout + Fibonacci Extension → Monitor for weak signals for sell entries

• Fibonacci Extension: 4,255–4,274
• Sell when a reversal signal occurs.

➤ Scenario 3: Buy from support when liquidity retreat occurs

• Buy zone: 4,191 → below 4,185
• Condition: Strong Reaction or Bullish on CHoCH
• Target:
▪ 4,215
▪ 4,232

◆ Conclusion

• FVG area 4,232 is key to identifying bearish trends.
• A sale of FVG Interaction remains the most likely scenario.
• If support at 4,191 holds → a strong buying opportunity may arise.
• If a breakout occurs, the market may absorb more liquidity before forming a new bottom.

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