Gold continues to fall as the market awaits the release of the non-farm payrolls report!

The U.S. dollar closed at a new low on Thursday, down about 0.6% on the day, and is currently fluctuating around $4,423. In the absence of any surprising news, the decline looked like the calm before the storm, with some funds choosing to take profits ahead of the non-farm payrolls data.

🌍News: Everyone is waiting for answers

Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report will be key in determining gold’s near-term direction. Market wait and see: Will this data change the Fed’s expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts?

Although the consensus of “two more rate cuts this year” has restrained the dollar, gold seems to have temporarily lost its growth catalyst.

It should be noted that global risk sentiment has softened and geopolitical tensions still exist. These hidden factors may suddenly support gold prices at some point.

📊 Technical Analysis: Key support levels at the crossroads

Gold is currently holding steady at the intersection of key support levels:

100 hour moving average ≈ 4429

Fibonacci retracement level 38.2% ≈ 4428

If the price fails to hold this level, the next target will be 4400 or even lower.

Indicators also point to growing bearish momentum: the MACD is below the zero line and trending lower, and the RSI has fallen below 40, clearly indicating a short-term bearish bias.

Is it possible to rebound? Maybe, but first we have to break above the 4455 level (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

If the price fails to stay above this level, any rebound will be nothing more than a technical correction.

🧭 My opinion: Watch and wait, but be prepared.

The market is waiting, and so are we.

Before the release of non-agricultural data, the downward trend may still dominate, but excessive shorting near key support levels is not recommended. Geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts are like “profiteering insurance policies” that always appear when everyone is complacent. Main resistance levels: 4450-4470
Key support level: 4400-4380

Trading is not only about correctly predicting trends, but also about getting the timing right and respecting risks. If you have been paying attention to this pivot point in the gold market, you are welcome to follow me. Let us analyze the market logically and wait patiently for the right opportunity.

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