Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
✅ Judging from the 4-hour chart (H4)
Gold prices remain in a weak bearish structure after yesterday’s failed rally.
1️⃣ Crossover of moving averages indicates that a downtrend is dominant
MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to slope downwards, indicating that the short-term selling momentum is under control.
MA20 (between 4082-4088) formed a strong resistance, and the price failed to break through this resistance many times, reflecting the weak rebound.
2️⃣ Bollinger Bands indicator shows a weak pattern
The midline of the Bollinger Bands (near 4069) continues to weigh on the price, with the last candle closing below it – a typical pattern of weakness and bearish moves.
If the decline continues, the lower Bollinger Band (about 4014) is still the next target.
3️⃣ Failed to try to rebound
The price failed to break through 4088-4090 many times, forming a short-term top.
The recent rebound has also failed to break through the moving average, indicating that the upward momentum continues to be weak.
➡️4-hour frame summary (H4): The trend remains bearish. As long as the price is below 4090, the overall sentiment remains in favor of the bears.
✅ Hourly Frame Analysis (H1): Similar Bearish Structure
1️⃣Smooth the descent channel
After gold prices hit a high of 4132, they fell strongly to 4038, then rebounded to 4068-4070, and then faced new selling pressure.
MA5/MA10/MA20/MA60 are all in a bearish arrangement.
2️⃣The rebound momentum is weak
The recent rebound only reached MA10-MA20 before starting to fall again, indicating strong selling pressure.
The main resistance level is still 4070-4085 points, and a breakthrough is unlikely.
3️⃣ Important support from 4044-4038
This range has shown some short-term buying demand, but remains weak.
A breakout of this support would open the way to 4015-4008.
➡️Hourly frame summary (H1): The short-term structure is weak and is expected to test the 4044-4038 level again.
🔴Resistance levels
4070–4085
4100–4110
4132
🟢 Support level
4044–4038
4015–4008
3997
✅ Suggested trading strategies
🔰 Strategy 1: Sell on the rebound (Master Plan)
If gold rebounds to 4070-4085 and encounters resistance:
➡️ Enter a small sell position
Stop loss: 4090
Target: 4055/4044/4035
👉 This is the strategy with the highest probability under current circumstances.
🔰Strategy 2: Sell from Strong Resistance Area (Aggressive)
If the price reaches 4100–4110:
➡️Medium-sized sales center
Stop loss: 4120
Target: 4065/4045
👉 This is a strong resistance area and the chance of breakthrough is weak.
🔰 Strategy 3: Sell on break of support (trend following)
If price breaks above 4044-4038:
➡️Sell on breakout
Target: 4015/4000
👉 A breakout of this range would open the way for a larger decline.
📌Conclusion
Frames H4 and H1 both show weak downward structure.
The retracements lack strength and are constantly tested by the moving averages.
4044-4038 is the most important support level today. Breaking this support level will accelerate the decline.
Today’s recommended plan:
Selling on rebound is the basic strategy
Only buy in areas of strong support (around 4038)
