Gazans’ flood suffering awaits next phase of peace plan

The United Nations says more than 800,000 Gazans are at risk of flooding as powerful winter storms sweep across the Strip.

Heavy rains have flooded the campground and caused several buildings to collapse.

Water trickles from the openings in the tent Ghadir al-Adham shares with her husband and six children in Gaza City. After the war, her family remained displaced, waiting for reconstruction to begin.

“Here we are, living a life of humiliation,” she told the BBC. “We want caravans. We want to rebuild our homes. We long for concrete to keep us warm. I sit and cry for my children every day.”

Two months after a U.S.-imposed ceasefire, Gaza is mired in the first phase of Donald Trump’s peace plan – with its territory divided among the warring parties and its people still displaced and surrounded by rubble.

Plans for a new home and a new government are frozen in the next phase of Donald Trump’s peace deal, while the search for Ran Gweli, Israel’s last hostage, continues.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that Hamas must return all Israeli hostages – living and dead – before the two sides enter the next, more difficult phase of a peace deal.

But multiple searches of Gaza’s ruins have so far turned up no trace of him. Gvili was arrested during a Hamas attack on October 7 as a police officer who went to defend the nearby Alumim kibbutz with a broken shoulder.

His parents, Talik and Itzik, were told last year that he did not survive.

Their route to Maytal’s home in southern Israel was lined with banners honoring him, and yellow flags commemorating the Israeli hostages flew by the roadside.

“They stole our child, they stole him,” his mother, Talik, told me.

“They knew where he was,” Itzik said. “They’re just trying to hide or keep him. They’re playing us.”

They believe Hamas wants to keep their son as insurance for future negotiations after repatriating all other hostages, living and dead.

In response, a Hamas official told the BBC that their accusations were false and that Israel was trying to avoid implementing the agreement.

But with no sign of Gweli’s body and pressure from Washington mounting, his parents said they were counting on Israeli leaders not to take action until their son was found.

“Everyone in the Israeli government said to us, ‘No, we will not go to level two until Ran comes back.’ That was their promise,” Talik said.

Many Israelis believe that if a hostage remains missing in the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu will have difficulty implementing the next steps in the agreement, including withdrawing Israeli troops further into the surrounding areas of Gaza.

Both Israel and Hamas face difficult concessions in the next phase of the deal. For Hamas, this means handing over weapons and power. For Israel, leave security to the International Stabilization Forces.

That’s why leaders on both sides may be hesitant, said retired general Israel Ziv, the former director of Israel’s military operations directorate.

“Israel and Hamas have a common interest not to move into phase two so quickly,” he told me. “Hamas does not want to lose control, and the Israeli side also prefers to stay in Gaza for political reasons because no one wants to explain to their base that they have to withdraw.”

Trump is the only one who can force both sides to move forward, he said, and time is running out.

“I think if we wait, we might miss the opportunity because Hamas is regrouping and its strength is returning,” he explained. “We have to take a deep breath and continue with the plan because keeping the status quo, that’s the worst-case scenario.”

Disarmament of Hamas in a way acceptable to both sides is seen as the first major obstacle. Without this, it is unlikely that any foreign country will send troops to defend Gaza, and it is unlikely that Hamas-controlled areas will begin to rebuild.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu said he was skeptical that foreign countries could complete the task on Israel’s behalf.

“Our friends in the United States want to try to build an international force that can do the job,” he said. “We know this force can accomplish certain things. I don’t want to get into details, they can’t do everything, maybe they can’t do the major things, but we’ll see.”

Gaza is currently bisected by the so-called Yellow Line, which marks the boundaries of Israeli forces during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel’s military chief of staff recently called it a “new border,” prompting accusations that Israel intends to remain there for the long term.

The Israeli prime minister and Donald Trump will discuss key issues, including how to disarm Hamas, at a meeting in Florida later this month.

The US president has brokered a ceasefire in Gaza and pushed his peace plan through the United Nations Security Council, where he has been outspoken about his desire to push the process forward.

He told reporters this week that he would announce the members of the new Gaza Peace Council early next year. “This will be one of the most legendary boards of all time…everyone wants to be a part of it,” he said.

There are also widespread reports that, under pressure from Washington, Israel is beginning to clear rubble in preparation for building a new temporary housing project in the Israeli-controlled Rafah area of ​​the southern Gaza Strip.

The new housing could reportedly provide housing for tens of thousands of Gazans, provided they are willing to enter Israeli-controlled areas and undergo checks for any links to Hamas.

Some believe this is part of a plan to lure Gazans into Israeli-controlled areas to isolate Hamas. A small number of people have entered these areas, heading towards camps set up there by Israeli-backed armed groups.

But many Gazans – even those who want to replace Hamas – say they refuse to live under Israeli control.

If phase two of Trump’s plan fails, it will be a glimpse of an alternative future for Gaza, one in which an already divided Gaza becomes even more divided.